5 ms·

TL;DR: People lie to pollsters.

by kanox 6y ago

twelfthnight 6y ago
> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. The reason why the polls are wrong is because the people who were answering these surveys were the wrong people. The takeaway from the article is not that people lie, but just that people who are more trusting (according to the GSS survey) are more likely to take surveys and are also more likely to vote Democratic.
- shinjitsu 6y ago
  Especially if those polled fear for their jobs if they answer the 'wrong way' in the poll and others find out about it: https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324807776510595078 https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324807776510595078 -> https://www.trumpaccountability.net/ https://www.trumpaccountability.net/
  - tshaddox 6y ago
    How could that tweet possibly have anything to do with polls? Any remotely scientific poll would surely be anonymous. That has nothing to do with people willingly tweeting their political views and then attempt to cover them up or expect them to be forgotten in the future.
    - parliament32 6y ago
      If you get a call from an unknown caller asking "hey who're you voting for", how do you know if it's a proper scientific pollster or your employer's brother-in-law?
    - thu2111 6y ago
      They're based on calling phone numbers, which are tied to identities, and the President has access to the NSA databases that correlate everyone's identities with their phones, IP addresses, etc. If people in Congress or the President wanted to, they could absolutely find out who answered in polls that they'd vote for a candidate.
- ARandomerDude 6y ago
  > people who are more trusting...are also more likely to vote Democratic I think this is built into the fabric of political views. If you're cautious about other people's motives, you'll want smaller government (less authority over you). The more you think folks are generally trustworthy, the less you'll fear having a larger government.
- EEMac 6y ago
  > People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. That might have been true in the past. From 2016-2020, Trump supporters have been loudly and repeatedly called racistNaziMisogynistHomophobe, or the polite version, "deplorable". That is not an environment that encourages honesty.
  - mjevans 6y ago
    Trump supporters do seem to differ from my view of a 'traditional republican'; if not the actions of the namesake (which I do view as the negative things you describe) what do they see in the candidate or platform being supported?
    - anonRepub12345 6y ago
      Since you did not specify what you consider a "traditional republican" to be, I'll tell you why I voted for Donald Trump: 1) No new wars started, despite media outcry in 2016 that he'd take us into WWIII; 2) Historic peace deals between Israel and its neighbors - again, in spite of accusations that Jerrod Kushner did not have any diplomatic skills and would botch anything he touched; 3) Strong federalist approach to COVID - while the media and Democrats decry Trump's approach to COVID, I appreciated his willingness to make Federal resources available to the states that requested them rather than force them onto unwilling governors; 4) His respect and support for the military - not always a favorable viewpoint for non-Americans, or even more liberal Americans, but I think has been a mainstay of Republicans for a while; 5) His support for law and order - we have to be a nation of laws and the riots and looting (not protests) that were a feature across the nation this summer that were supported by mayors, governors, and Democratic Representatives and Senators was saddening to watch; 6) His understanding that the response to COVID should not be worse than the disease itself and that the economy should be allowed to continue to operate, we cannot go into a permanent lockdown status and thrive as a country; 7) The economic growth we had pre-COVID was great as well as the economic opportunities for minorities and women. What policies did Trump enact which you think animated the support that Trump received?
      - 6y ago
- mjevans 6y ago
  My own perception of how others act is clearly clouded by the inaccuracy of survey sources. I wonder how many in any set think similarly about these surveys. I assume distrust is the most logical base state, hate unknown callers / blind interactions as sources of fraud, misinformation, and marketing (which I view as often leaning against the borderline of the former). I would also hope and assume, given the religious bias correlated with Republicans in the US, that many of them are more trusting of others.
Analemma_ 6y ago
That is exactly the opposite of what the article said.

TL;DR: People lie to pollsters.

by kanox 6y ago

TL;DR: People lie to pollsters.

> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. The reason why the polls are wrong is because the people who were answering these surveys were the wrong people. The takeaway from the article is not that people lie, but just that people who are more trusting (according to the GSS survey) are more likely to take surveys and are also more likely to vote Democratic.

shinjitsu 6y ago
Especially if those polled fear for their jobs if they answer the 'wrong way' in the poll and others find out about it: https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324807776510595078 https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324807776510595078 -> https://www.trumpaccountability.net/ https://www.trumpaccountability.net/
- tshaddox 6y ago
  How could that tweet possibly have anything to do with polls? Any remotely scientific poll would surely be anonymous. That has nothing to do with people willingly tweeting their political views and then attempt to cover them up or expect them to be forgotten in the future.
  - parliament32 6y ago
    If you get a call from an unknown caller asking "hey who're you voting for", how do you know if it's a proper scientific pollster or your employer's brother-in-law?
  - thu2111 6y ago
    They're based on calling phone numbers, which are tied to identities, and the President has access to the NSA databases that correlate everyone's identities with their phones, IP addresses, etc. If people in Congress or the President wanted to, they could absolutely find out who answered in polls that they'd vote for a candidate.
ARandomerDude 6y ago
> people who are more trusting...are also more likely to vote Democratic I think this is built into the fabric of political views. If you're cautious about other people's motives, you'll want smaller government (less authority over you). The more you think folks are generally trustworthy, the less you'll fear having a larger government.
EEMac 6y ago
> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. That might have been true in the past. From 2016-2020, Trump supporters have been loudly and repeatedly called racistNaziMisogynistHomophobe, or the polite version, "deplorable". That is not an environment that encourages honesty.
- mjevans 6y ago
  Trump supporters do seem to differ from my view of a 'traditional republican'; if not the actions of the namesake (which I do view as the negative things you describe) what do they see in the candidate or platform being supported?
  - anonRepub12345 6y ago
    Since you did not specify what you consider a "traditional republican" to be, I'll tell you why I voted for Donald Trump: 1) No new wars started, despite media outcry in 2016 that he'd take us into WWIII; 2) Historic peace deals between Israel and its neighbors - again, in spite of accusations that Jerrod Kushner did not have any diplomatic skills and would botch anything he touched; 3) Strong federalist approach to COVID - while the media and Democrats decry Trump's approach to COVID, I appreciated his willingness to make Federal resources available to the states that requested them rather than force them onto unwilling governors; 4) His respect and support for the military - not always a favorable viewpoint for non-Americans, or even more liberal Americans, but I think has been a mainstay of Republicans for a while; 5) His support for law and order - we have to be a nation of laws and the riots and looting (not protests) that were a feature across the nation this summer that were supported by mayors, governors, and Democratic Representatives and Senators was saddening to watch; 6) His understanding that the response to COVID should not be worse than the disease itself and that the economy should be allowed to continue to operate, we cannot go into a permanent lockdown status and thrive as a country; 7) The economic growth we had pre-COVID was great as well as the economic opportunities for minorities and women. What policies did Trump enact which you think animated the support that Trump received?
    - 6y ago
mjevans 6y ago
My own perception of how others act is clearly clouded by the inaccuracy of survey sources. I wonder how many in any set think similarly about these surveys. I assume distrust is the most logical base state, hate unknown callers / blind interactions as sources of fraud, misinformation, and marketing (which I view as often leaning against the borderline of the former). I would also hope and assume, given the religious bias correlated with Republicans in the US, that many of them are more trusting of others.

Analemma_ 6y ago

That is exactly the opposite of what the article said.