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I'm curious where polls actually work, are there any retrospectives polling agencies conduct and post online for scrutiny and constructive feedback? It'll prob

• dgr582systems 6y ago
  Exactly this. Where is the verification? Predictions don’t count for much unless you check that the expectations line up with reality.
  • dragonwriter 6y ago
    IIRC, 538 has available both the polling data and predictions for all of their political forecast series (not just Presidential.)
  • danhor 6y ago
    538 has some infos about this here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/
• wombatmobile 6y ago
  > I'm curious where polls actually work If your definition of "work" is that a poll accurately predicts the outcome of the election, take a step back. Polls don't do that. I'm not just referring to inaccuracies that are introduced by non-representedness of the sample, although that's clearly a factor as well. Polls invite respondents to indicate how they would vote "if an election were held today". But the election isn't being held today, and the respondents know it. Polls are an invitation for respondents to send a message to politicians before the poll, to influence the politicians' offerings. Respondents know that, and use the opportunity that way. So what are polls? Polls are their own little universe, with their own characteristics, dynamics, and effects. What they aren't is a crystal ball.
• handol 6y ago
  They work well for what seems to be their intended purpose. Providing fodder for political entertainment to the 24hr news networks.