6 ms·

I'm a bit confused about how this compares to non-COVID-19 patients. The Mayo clinic [1] shows the same number, one in five, for the general population in a giv

I'm a bit confused about how this compares to non-COVID-19 patients. The Mayo clinic [1] shows the same number, one in five, for the general population in a given year. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/mental-illness/symptoms-causes/syc-20374968 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/mental-illnes...

JoeAltmaier 6y ago
90 days vs 1 year?
- dtertman 6y ago
  Yeah, agree, but how do we compare time slices over probability?
  - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
    That's tricky, agreed. One chance in 1000 every day adds up to a 30% chance in a year for instance. And 1-in-5 every 90 days equals 4-in-5 over a year. If the risk doesn't change over time (if the covid effect is persistent for a year)
    - dtertman 6y ago
      > (if the covid effect is persistent for a year) I think that's the important bit. The article (at least) didn't indicate that the same standard applies at the 180, 270, or 360 day mark, so I don't think we can just say COVID patients roll the dice on mental illness 4x as often as the general population. If that's actually being implied, it's horrible.
  - 3PS 6y ago
    I feel like you'd probably want to use a Poisson distribution for this, but I can't be bothered to work it out fully.
  - vharuck 6y ago
    In a back-of-the-napkin, spherical-cow, way, it's not too hard. 20% chance it happens in a year means an 80% chance it doesn't. Let's assume (this is the spherical cow) each day has the same chance. We can find it by looking at the chance an adult doesn't get a mental illness in a year. Then, because that's the chance they won't get it every day, it's easier to figure out the daily chance of not getting one. 0.8 = x^365 x = 0.8^(1/365) x = 0.9993888346422956 1 - x = 0.0006111653577044462 So, overall, adults have roughly a 0.061% chance each day of getting a mental illness. Compared to the daily risk for this 90-day period 0.8 = x^90 x = 0.8^(1/90) x = 0.9993888346422956 1 - x = 0.0024763016863216247 So about 0.248% each day for the COVID patients. That's more than four times as high as for all adults. Remember, this is spherical cow stuff. Numbers to use in other calculations need a more experienced statistical approach, I'm sure. But this at least tells us something's different.
    - fulafel 6y ago
      As a sanity check the "half as high" background number sounds high? edit: scratch my mistaken numbers - but people would normally (without covid) get many mental illnesses per lifetime?
devxpy 6y ago
To quote - > About 1 in 5 adults has a mental illness in any given year This talks about people who may already have mental illness - > Mental illness can begin at any age, from childhood through later adult years, but most cases begin earlier in life. The OP is about new cases... Take out a sketchpad, draw an exponential representing the # of COVID cases everyday, over 90 days. The area under that curve / 5 is the number of new mental illness patients added every 90 days. Now extrapolate that over the year, and add it to the 1/5 (Total population) number, and that's where it starts to sound alarming.
- dtertman 6y ago
  This helps a lot, thank you!
- Izkata 6y ago
  Even the 1/5 general population has to develop it at some point. Sounds like covid patients are converging towards the normal after recovery, so I don't really see an issue here.
  - SamBam 6y ago
    1/5 of the general population do not develop mental illnesses within 90 days of an arbitrary starting point, unless the mental illness is extremely short-lived. Think of the difference this way: If 1/100 people are currently experiencing a headache, then it's also reasonable to think that 1/100 people will experience a headache tomorrow. But if 1/100 people have an amputation, it does not follow that 1/100 people will get an amputation tomorrow, or even in the next 90 days. If 1/100 people were always getting an amputation within 90 days of any arbitrary starting point, there would be many, many more amputees around. Mental illness being something that may lasts months to years, this certainly seems to be closer to the amputation case than the headache case. That implies that getting Covid can, indeed, be said to increase your chance of developing mental illness.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
amanaplanacanal 6y ago
According to the article it was twice as likely as non-Covid patients.
gowld 6y ago
And this year is not "a given year" The research is on "anxiety and depression" which is increasing in non-COVID-19 patients this year.

JoeAltmaier 6y ago

90 days vs 1 year?

dtertman 6y ago
Yeah, agree, but how do we compare time slices over probability?
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  That's tricky, agreed. One chance in 1000 every day adds up to a 30% chance in a year for instance. And 1-in-5 every 90 days equals 4-in-5 over a year. If the risk doesn't change over time (if the covid effect is persistent for a year)
  - dtertman 6y ago
    > (if the covid effect is persistent for a year) I think that's the important bit. The article (at least) didn't indicate that the same standard applies at the 180, 270, or 360 day mark, so I don't think we can just say COVID patients roll the dice on mental illness 4x as often as the general population. If that's actually being implied, it's horrible.
- 3PS 6y ago
  I feel like you'd probably want to use a Poisson distribution for this, but I can't be bothered to work it out fully.
- vharuck 6y ago
  In a back-of-the-napkin, spherical-cow, way, it's not too hard. 20% chance it happens in a year means an 80% chance it doesn't. Let's assume (this is the spherical cow) each day has the same chance. We can find it by looking at the chance an adult doesn't get a mental illness in a year. Then, because that's the chance they won't get it every day, it's easier to figure out the daily chance of not getting one. 0.8 = x^365 x = 0.8^(1/365) x = 0.9993888346422956 1 - x = 0.0006111653577044462 So, overall, adults have roughly a 0.061% chance each day of getting a mental illness. Compared to the daily risk for this 90-day period 0.8 = x^90 x = 0.8^(1/90) x = 0.9993888346422956 1 - x = 0.0024763016863216247 So about 0.248% each day for the COVID patients. That's more than four times as high as for all adults. Remember, this is spherical cow stuff. Numbers to use in other calculations need a more experienced statistical approach, I'm sure. But this at least tells us something's different.
  - fulafel 6y ago
    As a sanity check the "half as high" background number sounds high? edit: scratch my mistaken numbers - but people would normally (without covid) get many mental illnesses per lifetime?

devxpy 6y ago

To quote - > About 1 in 5 adults has a mental illness in any given year This talks about people who may already have mental illness - > Mental illness can begin at any age, from childhood through later adult years, but most cases begin earlier in life. The OP is about new cases... Take out a sketchpad, draw an exponential representing the # of COVID cases everyday, over 90 days. The area under that curve / 5 is the number of new mental illness patients added every 90 days. Now extrapolate that over the year, and add it to the 1/5 (Total population) number, and that's where it starts to sound alarming.

dtertman 6y ago
This helps a lot, thank you!
Izkata 6y ago
Even the 1/5 general population has to develop it at some point. Sounds like covid patients are converging towards the normal after recovery, so I don't really see an issue here.
- SamBam 6y ago
  1/5 of the general population do not develop mental illnesses within 90 days of an arbitrary starting point, unless the mental illness is extremely short-lived. Think of the difference this way: If 1/100 people are currently experiencing a headache, then it's also reasonable to think that 1/100 people will experience a headache tomorrow. But if 1/100 people have an amputation, it does not follow that 1/100 people will get an amputation tomorrow, or even in the next 90 days. If 1/100 people were always getting an amputation within 90 days of any arbitrary starting point, there would be many, many more amputees around. Mental illness being something that may lasts months to years, this certainly seems to be closer to the amputation case than the headache case. That implies that getting Covid can, indeed, be said to increase your chance of developing mental illness.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]

amanaplanacanal 6y ago

According to the article it was twice as likely as non-Covid patients.

gowld 6y ago

And this year is not "a given year" The research is on "anxiety and depression" which is increasing in non-COVID-19 patients this year.