4 ms·
Trump's odds have actually gone up since the media called it. He's at 11% now. (Source https://electionbettingodds.com/ https://electionbettingodds.com/ ) CNN f
by jungletime 6y ago
Trump's odds have actually gone up since the media called it. He's at 11% now. (Source https://electionbettingodds.com/ https://electionbettingodds.com/ )
CNN flipped back Wisconsin to uncalled recently.
He's on pace to win Arizona. And has a non zero chance to have some of the late ballots thrown out in Pennsylvania.
Two of the swing states, have key ridings with a history of corrupt and stupid leadership. Its a bad combination that gives Trump a betting chance.
Example, former Mayor Kilpatrick in Detroit was sentenced to 28 years for blatantly obvious self enrichment schemes.
People betting on Trump now are, are hedging on the "count all votes" mantra, even if good intentioned, led to ballots counted, that should not have been, and he can prove that in court.
- anamexis 6y agoCNN has not flipped Wisconsin back to uncalled.
- jungletime 6y agoWisconsin is now marked as flip on the map on cnn's website. See here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=poli...
- anamexis 6y agoYes, that means it changed from the 2016 election.
- dragonwriter 6y ago> CNN flipped back Wisconsin to uncalled recently. No, it didn't. > He's on pace to win Arizona. He's been consistently behind the needed pace, which is why the needed pace keeps increasing. > And has a non zero chance to have some of the late ballots thrown out in Pennsylvania. Perhaps technically non-zero, but close enough, and he lost without the late ballots anyway, so getting some of them thrown out won't help him.
- jungletime 6y agoWisconsin is now marked as flip on the map on cnn's website. See here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=poli...
- dragonwriter 6y ago> Wisconsin is now marked as flip on the map on cnn's website “Flip” is a state called in 2020 for the opposite party that won it in 2016; it's an indicator of changes in the electoral map. Wisconsin has been marked that way from when it was first called. From the page you cited: "Flipped seat" denotes a race where the 2020 projected winner is from a different party than the previous winner or incumbent.
- jungletime 6y agoYou're probably right. I misread that. Sorry. However a gap of only 20k votes. 99% votes in out of 3.2 mil So up to ~300K still left to count. And still conceivable it could flip on recount if its close.
- dragonwriter 6y ago> However a gap of only 20k votes. 99% votes in out of 3.2 mil So up to ~300K still left to count. No, 1% of 3.2 million is 32,000 not ~300,000. So, to make up a 20K deficit, the remaining ballots would need to break about 4:1 for Trump. (And the realistic shift for a recount is small enough, that it isn't meaningfully different if you were only concerned with what it would take for it to be within that range, either.) > And still conceivable it could flip on recount if its close. Sure, if it was within a couple hundred votes, it might. But it isn't, and it won't be.
- esoterica 6y ago> And still conceivable it could flip on recount if its close. No, no it will not. Here is the REPUBLICAN former governor of Wisconsin explaining why a recount won't change anything. The last two recounts changed the margin by 300 and 131 votes respectively. Nowhere close to the 20k required. https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1324002777597677569 https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1324002777597677569