Good points. I think you’re right about the importance of being able to fight near peers. > If you buy the second theory, then the major reason there is no war

Good points. I think you’re right about the importance of being able to fight near peers. > If you buy the second theory, then the major reason there is no war between the US and China or Russia is because they don't believe they can win (which is probably true, as long as the US doesn't try to invade). There’s also the issue that even for the winner, a war is probably net negative for its people. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231748269_Rationalist_Explanations_for_War https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231748269_Rationali... has interesting reasoning on how we can still get war even if states would prefer not to.