4 ms·

It's a common trope to take this kind of attitude, but this dynamic is not some kind of nefarious kickback scheme. It is the natural result of the Revolution in

It's a common trope to take this kind of attitude, but this dynamic is not some kind of nefarious kickback scheme. It is the natural result of the Revolution in Military Affairs concept and the political impossibility of developing these technologies in-house. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_in_military_affairs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_in_military_affairs

kristopolous 6y ago
Think tanks exist to rationalize unpalatable policies to the american public in plausible ways like that. Salaried teams spend all day inventing cover stories - that's why they exist as institutions. We're told there's some elaborate other system at play yet they never make a decision or recommendation which goes against the margins and stock prices of the corporations funding the think tanks. Instead, if there's multiple options they always seem to conclude that the most profitable is the best. Until this impeccably consistent 1000 batting average is broken we can be forgiven for suspecting it's all just manufactured nonsense.
- an_opabinia 6y ago
  But aren’t drones way cheaper than pretty much anything else?
  - kristopolous 6y ago
    Not the ones the military uses. They are more expensive then their planes with humans in them.
    - CapricornNoble 6y ago
      An MQ-9 Reaper costs no-where near what a modern Gen 4++/ Gen 5 fighter costs (F-15X, F/A-18F, F-22, F-35) does, neither in unit flyaway cost, nor in cost per flying hour.
      - kristopolous 6y ago
        What about the RQ-4A or the MQ-4C? Cherry picking is a two player game. If you can show a faithful effort that leads to a cost reduction then I'll rescind my claim. I'm totally open to learning however I'm also pretty suspicious of grifters passing off stories as information. The material reality has to match.
        CapricornNoble 6y ago
        Fair enough, those two airframes are inexplicably expensive. Some discussions hint at satellite-grade sensors as a factor.[1] But they are also <= 25% of the UAV inventory, much as F-22's aren't the bulk of our fighter force. So to avoid cherry picking, we could average across the entire airframe category (so all single-or-two seat fixed wing fighters vs all MALE UAVs). I haven't crunched those numbers but I think the point would stand in that case: manned costs => unmanned, considering the large number of $50-100MM jets in service that drag up the average. That said, I would caveat the conclusion by pointing out that use cases and mission sets are significantly different. If we were building UAVs with the same capabilities as an F-35....it would probably cost as much as an F-35 too. [1]https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2016/09/uav-triton-costs.html https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2016/09/uav-triton-costs.h...
        kristopolous 6y ago
        Yes there's complex reasons behind these things. My point is, and it's rather crude, that if everything always points in one direction, the complex reasons can be replaced with far simpler, less flattering ones.
- JumpCrisscross 6y ago
  > Think tanks exist to rationalize unpalatable policies to the american public in plausible ways like that. Salaried teams spend all day inventing cover stories - that's why they exist as institutions. I could describe the EFF in these terms. People don't want to be inconvenienced. The EFF makes inconvenience in pursuit of privacy palatable. This is profitable for the technology sector from which--surprise!--the EFF's support originates. This model doesn't work because knowledgeable people have a vested interest in what they know. Sometimes this presents a conflict of interest. But often it's just experts converging. (Other times, you're missing most of the debate.) > Until this impeccably consistent 1000 batting average America produces lots of think-tank literature. I'd be surprised if more than one in five hundred proposals see light of day.

kristopolous 6y ago

Think tanks exist to rationalize unpalatable policies to the american public in plausible ways like that. Salaried teams spend all day inventing cover stories - that's why they exist as institutions. We're told there's some elaborate other system at play yet they never make a decision or recommendation which goes against the margins and stock prices of the corporations funding the think tanks. Instead, if there's multiple options they always seem to conclude that the most profitable is the best. Until this impeccably consistent 1000 batting average is broken we can be forgiven for suspecting it's all just manufactured nonsense.

an_opabinia 6y ago
But aren’t drones way cheaper than pretty much anything else?
- kristopolous 6y ago
  Not the ones the military uses. They are more expensive then their planes with humans in them.
  - CapricornNoble 6y ago
    An MQ-9 Reaper costs no-where near what a modern Gen 4++/ Gen 5 fighter costs (F-15X, F/A-18F, F-22, F-35) does, neither in unit flyaway cost, nor in cost per flying hour.
    - kristopolous 6y ago
      What about the RQ-4A or the MQ-4C? Cherry picking is a two player game. If you can show a faithful effort that leads to a cost reduction then I'll rescind my claim. I'm totally open to learning however I'm also pretty suspicious of grifters passing off stories as information. The material reality has to match.
      - CapricornNoble 6y ago
        Fair enough, those two airframes are inexplicably expensive. Some discussions hint at satellite-grade sensors as a factor.[1] But they are also <= 25% of the UAV inventory, much as F-22's aren't the bulk of our fighter force. So to avoid cherry picking, we could average across the entire airframe category (so all single-or-two seat fixed wing fighters vs all MALE UAVs). I haven't crunched those numbers but I think the point would stand in that case: manned costs => unmanned, considering the large number of $50-100MM jets in service that drag up the average. That said, I would caveat the conclusion by pointing out that use cases and mission sets are significantly different. If we were building UAVs with the same capabilities as an F-35....it would probably cost as much as an F-35 too. [1]https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2016/09/uav-triton-costs.html https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2016/09/uav-triton-costs.h...
        kristopolous 6y ago
        Yes there's complex reasons behind these things. My point is, and it's rather crude, that if everything always points in one direction, the complex reasons can be replaced with far simpler, less flattering ones.
JumpCrisscross 6y ago
> Think tanks exist to rationalize unpalatable policies to the american public in plausible ways like that. Salaried teams spend all day inventing cover stories - that's why they exist as institutions. I could describe the EFF in these terms. People don't want to be inconvenienced. The EFF makes inconvenience in pursuit of privacy palatable. This is profitable for the technology sector from which--surprise!--the EFF's support originates. This model doesn't work because knowledgeable people have a vested interest in what they know. Sometimes this presents a conflict of interest. But often it's just experts converging. (Other times, you're missing most of the debate.) > Until this impeccably consistent 1000 batting average America produces lots of think-tank literature. I'd be surprised if more than one in five hundred proposals see light of day.