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While it is usually the assumption that only one side has access to some kind of groundbreaking technology in these dystopian futures, that is rarely the realit

While it is usually the assumption that only one side has access to some kind of groundbreaking technology in these dystopian futures, that is rarely the reality in actual conflicts. Consider the Arab Spring, largely held with cellphones most of us would consider heavily outdated. Citizens were still able to communicate and plan protests against the will of their governments despite the fact that their governments obviously had the capital and resources to invest in better technology than existed in consumer hands at the time. In a civilized world, the only thing stopping rapid equalization of technology in peoples' hands is intellectual property law, preventing thousands of copycat companies from ripping off the new iPhones until the price is so violently driven into the ground that you can find them at dollar stores. In a world at war, IP laws don't apply, and the only thing stopping the "other side" from standing up their own robot army is the will to invest in and support that technology. We may consider it to be secret government technology now, but all you need is one hardware hacker with some JTAG wires and one disabled unit for all of their secrets to spill out onto the open Web.

jariel 6y ago
The Arab Spring was mostly a failure, and then up against some very weak an ill-funded regimes. 'The people' are never going to gain access to networks of information systems, complicated weapons, training / support etc.. You can overthrow a weak government by getting a lot of people on board, some of them with AKs, but not much otherwise. And it's not 'IP laws' that stop China from building the same weapons as the US it's 'trade secrecy' - my gosh Boeing doesn't just 'patent and make public' their tech, they keep it very secret. Also - there's tremendous 'know how' in there, all the unspoken stuff, skill, knowledge that isn't very well summarized in any kind of document. China in 2020 is still having a hard time making it's own 5th gen jet engines, having to buy from Russia, though that may change.
- nexuist 6y ago
  > 'The people' are never going to gain access to networks of information systems, complicated weapons, training / support etc.. Who make up those networks if not people? Turncoats decide the fate of battles for a reason. The government cracks down hard on people like Snowden for a reason. These networks are only as secure as the weakest, and least loyal, link. > my gosh Boeing doesn't just 'patent and make public' their tech, they keep it very secret. How secret can you keep an aircraft once it gets shot down? The Russians reverse engineered the B-29 [1] , the Americans reverse engineered the Hind [2], the Chinese reverse engineered the F-22 [3], in part using wreckage from an F-117: "On 27 March 1999, one of the US Air Force’s stealth bombers was shot down in the NATO raid of Yugoslavia during Operation Noble Anvil. The wreckage was sent to China to study the stealth phenomenon except for the cockpit, which remains in a Belgrade museum." > Also - there's tremendous 'know how' in there, all the unspoken stuff, skill, knowledge that isn't very well summarized in any kind of document. Of course! It would take time to unravel this "know how" and get it documented. But the clues are there if you can afford to look. Almost every proprietary system can be documented and clean-room-reverse-engineered if you dedicate enough resources to it. Could a people's army do this? Maybe not, but it's not impossible either. > China in 2020 is still having a hard time making it's own 5th gen jet engines, having to buy from Russia, though that may change. I can guarantee you this project would advance much quicker if we were actually at a state of war, rather than peace with heightened tensions. These engines are not the end-all-be-all when compared to all their other priorities, but they could become a priority if war breaks out (obviously I hope it never does). When they do become a priority, history is on their side in terms of insurmountable odds beaten by skilled teams (see Manhattan Project, Have Blue, etc.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-4 [2] https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/that-time-army-night-stalkers-stole-an-advanced-russian-helicopter https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/that-time-arm... [3] https://theprint.in/defence/china-reverse-engineered-copied-technology-latest-j-20-fighter-jet/37266/ https://theprint.in/defence/china-reverse-engineered-copied-...
  - jariel 6y ago
    "Who make up those networks if not people?" ??? Nobody in the Middle East is going to get to 'form' or 'control' their own Military Industrial Complex. They may be able to 'assemble a crude drone' but they are not going to be 'creating their own GPS system' and 'air force' with 'global drones' and 'hyper guided weapons'. "How secret can you keep an aircraft once it gets shot down?" You can't but what's your point? How many F22's shot down? F35s? Heck F18s? If the Russians captured an intact F22 it would take them 15 years to copy it. There's an incredible about of know-how and knowledge in those sytstems. And what are 'People on the Arab Street' going to do with an F22? Absolutely nothing. And yes, the Chinese are 'very aggressively' pursuing their own Engine technology, they have been for 20 years. There are literally only like 4 countries in the world that con produce modern, 5th Gen fighter engines - let alone the 'rest of the jet' which gives you an idea of how far away the 'Arab Street' is to doing anything with tech. They are fighting with sticks and stones. If there are a million bodies there, they can have power, but aside from that, the only hope is political terror within their own borders against dysfunctional regimes.

jariel 6y ago

The Arab Spring was mostly a failure, and then up against some very weak an ill-funded regimes. 'The people' are never going to gain access to networks of information systems, complicated weapons, training / support etc.. You can overthrow a weak government by getting a lot of people on board, some of them with AKs, but not much otherwise. And it's not 'IP laws' that stop China from building the same weapons as the US it's 'trade secrecy' - my gosh Boeing doesn't just 'patent and make public' their tech, they keep it very secret. Also - there's tremendous 'know how' in there, all the unspoken stuff, skill, knowledge that isn't very well summarized in any kind of document. China in 2020 is still having a hard time making it's own 5th gen jet engines, having to buy from Russia, though that may change.

nexuist 6y ago
> 'The people' are never going to gain access to networks of information systems, complicated weapons, training / support etc.. Who make up those networks if not people? Turncoats decide the fate of battles for a reason. The government cracks down hard on people like Snowden for a reason. These networks are only as secure as the weakest, and least loyal, link. > my gosh Boeing doesn't just 'patent and make public' their tech, they keep it very secret. How secret can you keep an aircraft once it gets shot down? The Russians reverse engineered the B-29 [1] , the Americans reverse engineered the Hind [2], the Chinese reverse engineered the F-22 [3], in part using wreckage from an F-117: "On 27 March 1999, one of the US Air Force’s stealth bombers was shot down in the NATO raid of Yugoslavia during Operation Noble Anvil. The wreckage was sent to China to study the stealth phenomenon except for the cockpit, which remains in a Belgrade museum." > Also - there's tremendous 'know how' in there, all the unspoken stuff, skill, knowledge that isn't very well summarized in any kind of document. Of course! It would take time to unravel this "know how" and get it documented. But the clues are there if you can afford to look. Almost every proprietary system can be documented and clean-room-reverse-engineered if you dedicate enough resources to it. Could a people's army do this? Maybe not, but it's not impossible either. > China in 2020 is still having a hard time making it's own 5th gen jet engines, having to buy from Russia, though that may change. I can guarantee you this project would advance much quicker if we were actually at a state of war, rather than peace with heightened tensions. These engines are not the end-all-be-all when compared to all their other priorities, but they could become a priority if war breaks out (obviously I hope it never does). When they do become a priority, history is on their side in terms of insurmountable odds beaten by skilled teams (see Manhattan Project, Have Blue, etc.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-4 [2] https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/that-time-army-night-stalkers-stole-an-advanced-russian-helicopter https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/that-time-arm... [3] https://theprint.in/defence/china-reverse-engineered-copied-technology-latest-j-20-fighter-jet/37266/ https://theprint.in/defence/china-reverse-engineered-copied-...
- jariel 6y ago
  "Who make up those networks if not people?" ??? Nobody in the Middle East is going to get to 'form' or 'control' their own Military Industrial Complex. They may be able to 'assemble a crude drone' but they are not going to be 'creating their own GPS system' and 'air force' with 'global drones' and 'hyper guided weapons'. "How secret can you keep an aircraft once it gets shot down?" You can't but what's your point? How many F22's shot down? F35s? Heck F18s? If the Russians captured an intact F22 it would take them 15 years to copy it. There's an incredible about of know-how and knowledge in those sytstems. And what are 'People on the Arab Street' going to do with an F22? Absolutely nothing. And yes, the Chinese are 'very aggressively' pursuing their own Engine technology, they have been for 20 years. There are literally only like 4 countries in the world that con produce modern, 5th Gen fighter engines - let alone the 'rest of the jet' which gives you an idea of how far away the 'Arab Street' is to doing anything with tech. They are fighting with sticks and stones. If there are a million bodies there, they can have power, but aside from that, the only hope is political terror within their own borders against dysfunctional regimes.