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I wrote a program to calculate my kelly stakes based on supposed 'true' odds (ie no bookie overround) on English football matches. Maybe it would have worked ou
by VB6_Foreverr 15y ago
I wrote a program to calculate my kelly stakes based on supposed 'true' odds (ie no bookie overround) on English football matches. Maybe it would have worked out in the long run but I gave up owing to the effect it was having on my bank. I got my true odds from the Fink Tank column in the Saturday edition of The Times and bet on betfair for convenience and the ability to lay as well as back. I have no doubt that if your true odds are accruate it would maximise your returns. The hard part of course is estimating odds
- RockyMcNuts 15y agoha! I can't tell if this is a joke. Maybe you didn't estimate your edge correctly, or didn't have one? Or is this really dry British humor, as your handle leads one to suspect?
- rudiger 15y agoKelly criterion betting will always have huge swings, and there's a huge danger of over-betting if you don't precisely estimate your odds. For this reason, players will often bet an amount like "half Kelly" (simply half the bet given by the Kelly formula).