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Of course Nate Silver thinks Nate Silver is right... can you find another prominent statician not employed by him that’s defending his model? I linked to Gelman
by nwienert 6y ago
Of course Nate Silver thinks Nate Silver is right... can you find another prominent statician not employed by him that’s defending his model? I linked to Gelman, a legend in the field and he’s critical of himself and trusting polls, he admits he was wrong for this election.
And here’s Nate admitting he’s wrong the day of (if your model moves from 90/10 to 50/50 with one state change, maybe you shouldn’t be predicting 90/10):
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323813664164585474 https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/132381366416...
- nwienert 6y agoI particularly liked this tweet: > Look up "unbiased estimator" in your statistics textbook. Now relate that concept to the fact that the vast majority of outcomes were on one side of the sample mean.