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That's strange because Argentina and Peru stayed locked down for months over their winter, yet there case numbers kept rising.

by collyw 6y ago

kube-system 6y ago
Doesn't sound strange to me. Rising case numbers is 100% a likely (or even expected) condition under a successful lockdown. 1. We have no idea what a null hypothesis scenario would be in Argentina or Peru. 2. Regardless, "flattening the curve" is more of a statement about the first or second derivative of case numbers.
acdha 6y ago
1. What would the rate have been without doing anything? 2. Do you have data showing how effective the lockdowns were? Did they have a problem with compliance? Here’s a recent publication which could inform your opinion - note especially the part about employment forcing people to leave their houses to work: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32328-X/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... “ Latin American countries have long had some of the most scarring income inequalities in the world, and they are predicted to worsen. The informal labour market is huge, making up 54% of all work across the region (up to 70% in some countries, such as Peru). Informal workers have little access to social protection and have no choice but to continue to work daily to earn a living. The result is that their capability to follow quarantine and social distancing measures is limited. Informal workers also have less access to health care.” … “The increases in obesity and diabetes in Latin America are surely major contributors to the high mortality rates. In Mexico and Chile, more than 75% of the female population is overweight. Nutrient-poor and energy-dense processed foods are often the only type of food readily affordable to the most disadvantaged people. Although some countries, including Brazil and Costa Rica, have a universal health-care system, most Latin American countries have large gaps in accessibility caused mainly by out-of-pocket health expenditure, which is 34% of total health spending.”
- collyw 6y ago
  It's difficult to say because most places did lockdown. Everyone expected Sweden to Spiral out of control but they didn't. Neil Fergusons models predicted an order of magnitude more deaths there (https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/ https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-...) . "Sweden had more deaths than Norway and Finland" yes they screwed up sending people to care homes when it first hit - over half of their deaths occurred there. like most of the countries that got hit early. Plus a lot of dark skinned immigrants (vitamin D levels have been shown to be a big factor). Those alone account for a lot of the difference. There is little reason to believe that lockdown had a very positive effect.
  - acdha 6y ago
    Neil Ferguson is a popular target by people misrepresenting his research. There’s a reason why you’re citing a self-published essay by a guy with no relevant experience who gets a paycheck from the Kochs for general right-wing activism rather than peer-reviewed research by someone with public health or medical expertise.
Polylactic_acid 6y ago
Victoria, Australia had a lockdown that lasted for only 3 months and completely eradicated covid from the state.
- collyw 6y ago
  Hypothesis about why Asia and nearby countries got affected so much less than the West, with what seems to be a decent data analysis. TLDR, exposure to bats in these countries and travel between them. https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298956333941743616?lang=en https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298956333941743616?...
  - Polylactic_acid 6y ago
    Victoria had an exploding case count that was set to match the rest of the world before the government did a hard lockdown. And not just the feel good ones they do in the US, the lockdown meant you could only leave the house for 1 hour a day for exercise within a 5km radius and anyone who absolutely had to leave the house had to show proof and wear a mask. The case count fell sharply only after these measures were put in place.

That's strange because Argentina and Peru stayed locked down for months over their winter, yet there case numbers kept rising.

by collyw 6y ago

That's strange because Argentina and Peru stayed locked down for months over their winter, yet there case numbers kept rising.

kube-system 6y ago

Doesn't sound strange to me. Rising case numbers is 100% a likely (or even expected) condition under a successful lockdown. 1. We have no idea what a null hypothesis scenario would be in Argentina or Peru. 2. Regardless, "flattening the curve" is more of a statement about the first or second derivative of case numbers.

acdha 6y ago

1. What would the rate have been without doing anything? 2. Do you have data showing how effective the lockdowns were? Did they have a problem with compliance? Here’s a recent publication which could inform your opinion - note especially the part about employment forcing people to leave their houses to work: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32328-X/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... “ Latin American countries have long had some of the most scarring income inequalities in the world, and they are predicted to worsen. The informal labour market is huge, making up 54% of all work across the region (up to 70% in some countries, such as Peru). Informal workers have little access to social protection and have no choice but to continue to work daily to earn a living. The result is that their capability to follow quarantine and social distancing measures is limited. Informal workers also have less access to health care.” … “The increases in obesity and diabetes in Latin America are surely major contributors to the high mortality rates. In Mexico and Chile, more than 75% of the female population is overweight. Nutrient-poor and energy-dense processed foods are often the only type of food readily affordable to the most disadvantaged people. Although some countries, including Brazil and Costa Rica, have a universal health-care system, most Latin American countries have large gaps in accessibility caused mainly by out-of-pocket health expenditure, which is 34% of total health spending.”

collyw 6y ago
It's difficult to say because most places did lockdown. Everyone expected Sweden to Spiral out of control but they didn't. Neil Fergusons models predicted an order of magnitude more deaths there (https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/ https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-...) . "Sweden had more deaths than Norway and Finland" yes they screwed up sending people to care homes when it first hit - over half of their deaths occurred there. like most of the countries that got hit early. Plus a lot of dark skinned immigrants (vitamin D levels have been shown to be a big factor). Those alone account for a lot of the difference. There is little reason to believe that lockdown had a very positive effect.
- acdha 6y ago
  Neil Ferguson is a popular target by people misrepresenting his research. There’s a reason why you’re citing a self-published essay by a guy with no relevant experience who gets a paycheck from the Kochs for general right-wing activism rather than peer-reviewed research by someone with public health or medical expertise.

Polylactic_acid 6y ago

Victoria, Australia had a lockdown that lasted for only 3 months and completely eradicated covid from the state.

collyw 6y ago
Hypothesis about why Asia and nearby countries got affected so much less than the West, with what seems to be a decent data analysis. TLDR, exposure to bats in these countries and travel between them. https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298956333941743616?lang=en https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298956333941743616?...
- Polylactic_acid 6y ago
  Victoria had an exploding case count that was set to match the rest of the world before the government did a hard lockdown. And not just the feel good ones they do in the US, the lockdown meant you could only leave the house for 1 hour a day for exercise within a 5km radius and anyone who absolutely had to leave the house had to show proof and wear a mask. The case count fell sharply only after these measures were put in place.