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Contract tracing seems to work just fine in the Asian countries that have successfully stopped the virus in its tracks, and if China's 1.3 billion people isn't

Contract tracing seems to work just fine in the Asian countries that have successfully stopped the virus in its tracks, and if China's 1.3 billion people isn't at scale, I'm not sure what is. But yes, it does require having few enough infected people to make it feasible, and places like the US and most of Europe are waaaaay beyond that point now.

maxerickson 6y ago
China has also done mass testing when their contract tracing broke down. If we could get high compliance with isolation of positives, the US/Europe could use mass testing to "reset" without lockdowns. Test all of Michigan across a couple days and you will identify a significant portion of the infected. Then do Wisconsin. Encourage people to limit travel during those periods and so on. You wouldn't get to 0 in one cycle, but it would hammer the transmission rate.
- roywiggins 6y ago
  Slovakia has tried it: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/slovakias-second-round-coronavirus-tests-draws-large-crowds https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/slovakias-second-r...
- rlt 6y ago
  > If we could get high compliance For better or worse [1], complying with mass government orders is simply not part of the collective American psyche. 1. it still remains to be seen if this individualism and distrust of government is one of America’s greatest strengths, or its future downfall
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Yes, I phrased it that way quite on purpose. I'd prefer not to get Covid19, but the real worrying thing about it is the potential for a worse disease. Say it's almost as transmissible but much more deadly. How will we respond? I'm sure many people would do more to protect themselves, but I wonder how deadly it would have to be for some people, and how deadly would it have to be to make community minded cooperation the obvious path (this is a reasonable description of mask wearing…).

maxerickson 6y ago

China has also done mass testing when their contract tracing broke down. If we could get high compliance with isolation of positives, the US/Europe could use mass testing to "reset" without lockdowns. Test all of Michigan across a couple days and you will identify a significant portion of the infected. Then do Wisconsin. Encourage people to limit travel during those periods and so on. You wouldn't get to 0 in one cycle, but it would hammer the transmission rate.

roywiggins 6y ago
Slovakia has tried it: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/slovakias-second-round-coronavirus-tests-draws-large-crowds https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/slovakias-second-r...
rlt 6y ago
> If we could get high compliance For better or worse [1], complying with mass government orders is simply not part of the collective American psyche. 1. it still remains to be seen if this individualism and distrust of government is one of America’s greatest strengths, or its future downfall
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Yes, I phrased it that way quite on purpose. I'd prefer not to get Covid19, but the real worrying thing about it is the potential for a worse disease. Say it's almost as transmissible but much more deadly. How will we respond? I'm sure many people would do more to protect themselves, but I wonder how deadly it would have to be for some people, and how deadly would it have to be to make community minded cooperation the obvious path (this is a reasonable description of mask wearing…).