Kind of, but two things: (1) the markets are irrational. And (2) real events (eg 100% certainty that we have a vaccine passing phase 3 right now) are different

Kind of, but two things: (1) the markets are irrational. And (2) real events (eg 100% certainty that we have a vaccine passing phase 3 right now) are different than 90% chance that we’ll have a vaccine in the next y months.