You know, if you had been following 538, none of this was either mysterious or unexpected. The challenge is that the vote counting got behind. Specifically in

You know, if you had been following 538, none of this was either mysterious or unexpected. The challenge is that the vote counting got behind. Specifically in most places it got behind in major cities. Which voted more D than R, even among mail-in ballots (which already lean more D than R than in person voting in most states - Arizona being a notable exception). As soon as you correct for where the ballots are from rather than guessing that it is all rural, the discrepancy disappears. But that's inconvenient for a disinformation campaign so gets lost.