3 ms·

There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud is what’s being said. It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t. It also strikes me as

There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud is what’s being said. It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t. It also strikes me as strange that they’re targeting only the cities that they are. Detroit for example when it was actually Oakland and Kent Counties that most altered the outcome in Michigan for Trump. Election officials have many ways to audit elections for example knowing exactly who voted in an election how and where. To fill out and mail thousands of ballots you’d need to have them in the first place. Ballots are tracked from mailing to receipt and processing. How would you know who to pick so that there’s no conflict if they show up at the precinct to vote in person?

AnthonyMouse 6y ago
> It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t. But that's what I'm saying. What measures can we put into place to allow them to do that if it's actually true, or rule it out if it isn't? I'm asking for a good way that someone could find evidence that someone else e.g. mailed in a large number of ballots fraudulently, and you're telling me that there is no evidence of that happening. Well yeah, that's the issue. What I want is a way to distinguish the case where there isn't evidence because it isn't happening from the case where there isn't evidence because we don't have a good system in place for detecting it. I want the ability to show conclusively that this isn't happening if it isn't happening, not just a lawyer's argument that absence of evidence is evidence of absence.
- adjkant 6y ago
  And until you have that, you're going to assuming the unlikely, unproven, and unprecedented side from a president literally known for lying and questioning the results of the past election baselessly, finding no evidence in 4 years of time to search and the DOJ at their disposal? You think the conspiracy is so widespread and perfect that there's no trail at all, not even to maybe 20% of the alleged fraud? C'mon now.
- tptacek 6y ago
  Before you ask for people to help you preclude that anyone mailed in a large number of fraudulent ballots, I think it's fair to put to onus on you to describe how that actually could have happened. Start at step 1 and talk us through it: what does the "thousand ballot mail-in attack" look like? Bear in mind voters are registered with ID and proof of address into every state's voter rolls, states have records of when people die, and every election authority watches for duplicate votes; those are the table stakes mitigations you need to get past. Go ahead, I'm interested in hearing this out.
  - AnthonyMouse 6y ago
    So let's come up with a couple of scenarios here. Probably the hardest one to catch is where they have access to the voter rolls and submit ballots in the names of people who were legitimately registered but didn't vote. The stealthier way to do that would be to have real-time access and then inject the ballots at the last minute in the names of people they know didn't vote, so there wouldn't be duplicates. The scattershot method would be to predict who isn't likely to vote, e.g. because they didn't vote last time, and submit ballots in those names. Then they would have some duplicate ballots, but if the predictions about who wouldn't vote were mostly right, they could submit thousands of ballots and only have a small percentage of duplicates. There would be some duplicates, but then what do you do? You could throw out the duplicates, but one of the two was a legitimate ballot, and the majority of fraudulent ballots wouldn't be duplicated and would still get counted. It's also not obvious how to distinguish between whether a small percentage of duplicated ballots out of millions cast are a result of a single act of intentional fraud or many independent acts of incompetence. Another alternative would be to register people who didn't request to be, e.g. people who are institutionalized and a worker at the institution is in a position to register them and then intercept their ballots and submit them. Some privileged positions would allow someone to do this at greater scale, e.g. postal workers. A postal worker in a high density city could have many thousands of residences on their route, each with multiple eligible voters. Get a copy of the voter rolls, register every eligible voter on their route who isn't already in there, use their real social security numbers obtained from a copy of the Equifax leak or similar, then request mail-in ballots to take and submit.

AnthonyMouse 6y ago

> It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t. But that's what I'm saying. What measures can we put into place to allow them to do that if it's actually true, or rule it out if it isn't? I'm asking for a good way that someone could find evidence that someone else e.g. mailed in a large number of ballots fraudulently, and you're telling me that there is no evidence of that happening. Well yeah, that's the issue. What I want is a way to distinguish the case where there isn't evidence because it isn't happening from the case where there isn't evidence because we don't have a good system in place for detecting it. I want the ability to show conclusively that this isn't happening if it isn't happening, not just a lawyer's argument that absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

adjkant 6y ago
And until you have that, you're going to assuming the unlikely, unproven, and unprecedented side from a president literally known for lying and questioning the results of the past election baselessly, finding no evidence in 4 years of time to search and the DOJ at their disposal? You think the conspiracy is so widespread and perfect that there's no trail at all, not even to maybe 20% of the alleged fraud? C'mon now.
tptacek 6y ago
Before you ask for people to help you preclude that anyone mailed in a large number of fraudulent ballots, I think it's fair to put to onus on you to describe how that actually could have happened. Start at step 1 and talk us through it: what does the "thousand ballot mail-in attack" look like? Bear in mind voters are registered with ID and proof of address into every state's voter rolls, states have records of when people die, and every election authority watches for duplicate votes; those are the table stakes mitigations you need to get past. Go ahead, I'm interested in hearing this out.
- AnthonyMouse 6y ago
  So let's come up with a couple of scenarios here. Probably the hardest one to catch is where they have access to the voter rolls and submit ballots in the names of people who were legitimately registered but didn't vote. The stealthier way to do that would be to have real-time access and then inject the ballots at the last minute in the names of people they know didn't vote, so there wouldn't be duplicates. The scattershot method would be to predict who isn't likely to vote, e.g. because they didn't vote last time, and submit ballots in those names. Then they would have some duplicate ballots, but if the predictions about who wouldn't vote were mostly right, they could submit thousands of ballots and only have a small percentage of duplicates. There would be some duplicates, but then what do you do? You could throw out the duplicates, but one of the two was a legitimate ballot, and the majority of fraudulent ballots wouldn't be duplicated and would still get counted. It's also not obvious how to distinguish between whether a small percentage of duplicated ballots out of millions cast are a result of a single act of intentional fraud or many independent acts of incompetence. Another alternative would be to register people who didn't request to be, e.g. people who are institutionalized and a worker at the institution is in a position to register them and then intercept their ballots and submit them. Some privileged positions would allow someone to do this at greater scale, e.g. postal workers. A postal worker in a high density city could have many thousands of residences on their route, each with multiple eligible voters. Get a copy of the voter rolls, register every eligible voter on their route who isn't already in there, use their real social security numbers obtained from a copy of the Equifax leak or similar, then request mail-in ballots to take and submit.