4 ms·

Not sure where you are getting your figures but this does not seem to match reality. USGS predicts we have 13.5 million tons of lithium reserves which would su

Not sure where you are getting your figures but this does not seem to match reality. USGS predicts we have 13.5 million tons of lithium reserves which would support production of 100 million EVs per year for over 17 years. And that's just on the earth. Asteroid mining, recycling, or alternate battery tech could easily extend that timeline. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough-lithium-to-maintain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough... Also take a look at recent solar costs vs. fossil fuels. They've already crossed with fossil fuels at 5-17 cents and solar at 3-6 cents per kwh. We should of course not waste energy, but requiring humanity to use less energy is not the answer, it's never happened in human history and we do not need it to happen.

ppf 6y ago
USGS themselves say the US has 700,000 tons of proven lithium reserves, and 7 million tons of potential lithium resources https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pd... The article you linked also doesn't do your point any favours - some quotes: >"Can lithium batteries scale up? According to this quick and purely speculative math, the short answer is, with current reserves, not just no, but hell no." >"Even this little sketch of the issue highlights the obvious conclusion: we need to do our best to get away from single passenger cars -- even EVs -- and rely more on smart city design, walking, biking, carpooling, trains, shuttles, etc." As for the relative prices of electricity sources - I'll just say it again, the energy returned on energy invested for renewable sources mean that an all-renewable grid would have a higher cost per unit of electricity. The only reason it's cheap now is because most of the manufacturing is done by countries that are happy to burn oil, coal, and whatever else they can find, to do so.
- aeternum 6y ago
  I guess only time will tell. I believe battery improvements will now only accelerate given the amount of research in that area. Even if lithium doesn't scale, we will find alternatives for electrical energy storage and will become increasingly efficient at renewable manufacturing.

ppf 6y ago

USGS themselves say the US has 700,000 tons of proven lithium reserves, and 7 million tons of potential lithium resources https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pd... The article you linked also doesn't do your point any favours - some quotes: >"Can lithium batteries scale up? According to this quick and purely speculative math, the short answer is, with current reserves, not just no, but hell no." >"Even this little sketch of the issue highlights the obvious conclusion: we need to do our best to get away from single passenger cars -- even EVs -- and rely more on smart city design, walking, biking, carpooling, trains, shuttles, etc." As for the relative prices of electricity sources - I'll just say it again, the energy returned on energy invested for renewable sources mean that an all-renewable grid would have a higher cost per unit of electricity. The only reason it's cheap now is because most of the manufacturing is done by countries that are happy to burn oil, coal, and whatever else they can find, to do so.

aeternum 6y ago
I guess only time will tell. I believe battery improvements will now only accelerate given the amount of research in that area. Even if lithium doesn't scale, we will find alternatives for electrical energy storage and will become increasingly efficient at renewable manufacturing.