While I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion (quit watching the polls so much if you're not a campaign manager), I feel obliged to point out that, for

While I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion (quit watching the polls so much if you're not a campaign manager), I feel obliged to point out that, for the second presidential campaign in a row, Rasmussen nailed it to within less than a single percentage point. Not that they're always perfect or anything, but...