> To even stand a hope of getting to 0.01% risks you need a population of at least several thousand in your trial. Phase III trials don't run with enough part

> To even stand a hope of getting to 0.01% risks you need a population of at least several thousand in your trial. Phase III trials don't run with enough participants to detect 0.01% effects with any confidence. These are generally found postmarketing, like Vioxx. In terms of vaccine harm, a badly behaved swine flu vaccine caused 3 cases of narcolepsy per 100k juveniles vaccinated. This effect simply would never be seen in Phase III trials. Finally, beyond the raw CFR we need to consider other adverse outcomes from covid: cognitive impairment following mechanical ventilation and cardiac damage are two that really worry me.