6 ms·

The second wave of Covid-19 has sent much of Europe back into lockdown

40 points by Sami_Lehtinen 6y ago

micropoet 6y ago
Dark days are coming.
- Akcium 6y ago
  I was shocked when I that France had 80k cases... O_O
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    I've been tracking the "millionaires' club" --- countries with at least 1 million confirmed cases. Mexico had been lining up to be the next member, in about 8 days, first noted 2 weeks ago. Italy is now rocketing past Mexico, and will pass 1m cases in 3 days. That caught me by surprise. https://rys.io/covid/#linear;italy,mexico https://rys.io/covid/#linear;italy,mexico https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/mexico/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/mexico/ France's new daily cases have been more than India.
  - wcoenen 6y ago
    In Belgium we have 450K active cases, 3.9% of the population. Everybody at least knows somebody with covid-19 at this point.
- Talinx 6y ago
  "Winter is coming" is the title of a (more or less) recent episode of a german podcast: https://youtu.be/Ymp11vnssMQ https://youtu.be/Ymp11vnssMQ I think Jo(h)n Snow ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Snow_(character) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Snow_(character) ) would agree.
  - azepoi 6y ago
    You should be thankful to have such strong and rational voices (Drosten and co) in the public discourse in Germany. I think that's one of the differences with France.
rasz 6y ago
Sending kids to school has to be the stupidest idea during this pandemic. Poland had hardly any deaths until the end of September. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/
- bzzzt 6y ago
  Correlation does not equal causation.
  - callinOutLiars 6y ago
    You forgot the link: https://xkcd.com/552/ https://xkcd.com/552/
- cmurf 6y ago
  I once thought this way too, based on common cold and flu spikes coinciding with onset of school. But that's also when kids are all on top of each other all the time. We should sooner completely shutdown bars and restaurants before shutting down schools. Especially elementary school kids. They need to be in school more than we need entertainment. I think more frequent, even if less accurate, testing would significantly help mitigate the spread by further isolating those who have a higher degree of likelihood for being contagious.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- Closi 6y ago
  > Sending kids to school has to be the stupidest idea during this pandemic. It's only the stupidest idea if you see it as 'low or medium cost' - if you see it as a high cost then you can understand that there is a strategic trade-off to be made (kids staying at home would clearly have a high benefit for controlling the pandemic, so that is the trade off). A generation of students losing a year of high-quality education could represent a huge long-term cost, particularly considering that a lot of Europe's business is knowledge-work, and the impact education has on quality of life / socioeconomic factors. Adding to that, kids at home blocks some adults who can work from working, and there is a multiplier effect. I'm not saying it's the right decision, but to claim that it's "the stupidest decision" makes it sound like it's a no-brainer when I'm not sure it is.
dehrmann 6y ago
The open question is whether this leads to people just saying "fuck it" or people asking for stronger government actions to control it.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- bzzzt 6y ago
  I've seen polls on some news sites in the Netherlands which seem to be 70% in favour of the government actions and 30% against. Seems "the silent majority" really want the government to do "something".
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    It’s similar in the UK although when it comes to individuals the compliance rate for self isolation is very low (18 %).
  - brnt 6y ago
    The Netherlands problem is that the (central) government actually doesnt have the right to legislate anything like this, so it keeps sending out strongly worded recommendations that can and are interpreted any way people feel fit. Which makes things very unclear for everyone. They've been working on giving themselves any formal power since march, but nothing has gone through yet. That's why I think many are dying for them to make some actual laws and be done with it, even if they're strict.
    - bzzzt 6y ago
      Fyi: the "coronawet" legislation was passed on 27 October.
      - brnt 6y ago
        De wet is eindelijk ingediend, maar wanneer er gestemd gaat worden? Er is vziw nog geen datum. Dus, vooralsnog geen wet in werking. Het ZML stukje gisteren vatte de verwarring mooi samen.
D3ant 6y ago
On France, the second lockdown started a week ago, but honnestly it should start mid september…
- dehrmann 6y ago
  Yeah; it was pretty obvious in mid-August that the spring peak had been sorta (there's a lot more testing now) surpassed and growth was going exponential.
- throw_m239339 6y ago
  Schools are still open, the lockdown is pretty useless without schools remaining closed. Kids are asymptomatic carriers and infect their parents back home. https://imgur.com/d2mLyhY https://imgur.com/d2mLyhY
troughway 6y ago
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-1G4yslXEGYJ:https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-1G4ys...
d13 6y ago
Why was there no second wave in China?
slaw 6y ago
There is no second wave of deaths or hospitalizations in Sweden. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
- grrowl 6y ago
  1. Linking to a such a long and broad-coverage page such as that isn't very helpful 2. Maybe it was cut off on your screen but under heading "Cases per day" there certainly has been a second peak after the first (24 June, 1698 cases per day) on 23 Oct, with 1870 cases per day. Very much appears like a second wave despite remaining relatively high in the "down" period with 300-case peaks every week between the two highs. 3. Not sure what policy they changed after the first peak but there is a significant drop after that through early-mid July.
  - sippeangelo 6y ago
    Keyword being "deaths". COVID is peaking and cases are 3 times worse than in June, but deaths are staying flat.

40 points by Sami_Lehtinen 6y ago

micropoet 6y ago

Dark days are coming.

Akcium 6y ago
I was shocked when I that France had 80k cases... O_O
- dredmorbius 6y ago
  I've been tracking the "millionaires' club" --- countries with at least 1 million confirmed cases. Mexico had been lining up to be the next member, in about 8 days, first noted 2 weeks ago. Italy is now rocketing past Mexico, and will pass 1m cases in 3 days. That caught me by surprise. https://rys.io/covid/#linear;italy,mexico https://rys.io/covid/#linear;italy,mexico https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/mexico/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/mexico/ France's new daily cases have been more than India.
- wcoenen 6y ago
  In Belgium we have 450K active cases, 3.9% of the population. Everybody at least knows somebody with covid-19 at this point.
Talinx 6y ago
"Winter is coming" is the title of a (more or less) recent episode of a german podcast: https://youtu.be/Ymp11vnssMQ https://youtu.be/Ymp11vnssMQ I think Jo(h)n Snow ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Snow_(character) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Snow_(character) ) would agree.
- azepoi 6y ago
  You should be thankful to have such strong and rational voices (Drosten and co) in the public discourse in Germany. I think that's one of the differences with France.

rasz 6y ago

Sending kids to school has to be the stupidest idea during this pandemic. Poland had hardly any deaths until the end of September. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/

bzzzt 6y ago
Correlation does not equal causation.
- callinOutLiars 6y ago
  You forgot the link: https://xkcd.com/552/ https://xkcd.com/552/
cmurf 6y ago
I once thought this way too, based on common cold and flu spikes coinciding with onset of school. But that's also when kids are all on top of each other all the time. We should sooner completely shutdown bars and restaurants before shutting down schools. Especially elementary school kids. They need to be in school more than we need entertainment. I think more frequent, even if less accurate, testing would significantly help mitigate the spread by further isolating those who have a higher degree of likelihood for being contagious.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
Closi 6y ago
> Sending kids to school has to be the stupidest idea during this pandemic. It's only the stupidest idea if you see it as 'low or medium cost' - if you see it as a high cost then you can understand that there is a strategic trade-off to be made (kids staying at home would clearly have a high benefit for controlling the pandemic, so that is the trade off). A generation of students losing a year of high-quality education could represent a huge long-term cost, particularly considering that a lot of Europe's business is knowledge-work, and the impact education has on quality of life / socioeconomic factors. Adding to that, kids at home blocks some adults who can work from working, and there is a multiplier effect. I'm not saying it's the right decision, but to claim that it's "the stupidest decision" makes it sound like it's a no-brainer when I'm not sure it is.

dehrmann 6y ago

The open question is whether this leads to people just saying "fuck it" or people asking for stronger government actions to control it.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
bzzzt 6y ago
I've seen polls on some news sites in the Netherlands which seem to be 70% in favour of the government actions and 30% against. Seems "the silent majority" really want the government to do "something".
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  It’s similar in the UK although when it comes to individuals the compliance rate for self isolation is very low (18 %).
- brnt 6y ago
  The Netherlands problem is that the (central) government actually doesnt have the right to legislate anything like this, so it keeps sending out strongly worded recommendations that can and are interpreted any way people feel fit. Which makes things very unclear for everyone. They've been working on giving themselves any formal power since march, but nothing has gone through yet. That's why I think many are dying for them to make some actual laws and be done with it, even if they're strict.
  - bzzzt 6y ago
    Fyi: the "coronawet" legislation was passed on 27 October.
    - brnt 6y ago
      De wet is eindelijk ingediend, maar wanneer er gestemd gaat worden? Er is vziw nog geen datum. Dus, vooralsnog geen wet in werking. Het ZML stukje gisteren vatte de verwarring mooi samen.

D3ant 6y ago

On France, the second lockdown started a week ago, but honnestly it should start mid september…

dehrmann 6y ago
Yeah; it was pretty obvious in mid-August that the spring peak had been sorta (there's a lot more testing now) surpassed and growth was going exponential.
throw_m239339 6y ago
Schools are still open, the lockdown is pretty useless without schools remaining closed. Kids are asymptomatic carriers and infect their parents back home. https://imgur.com/d2mLyhY https://imgur.com/d2mLyhY

troughway 6y ago

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-1G4yslXEGYJ:https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-1G4ys...

d13 6y ago

Why was there no second wave in China?

slaw 6y ago

There is no second wave of deaths or hospitalizations in Sweden. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

grrowl 6y ago
1. Linking to a such a long and broad-coverage page such as that isn't very helpful 2. Maybe it was cut off on your screen but under heading "Cases per day" there certainly has been a second peak after the first (24 June, 1698 cases per day) on 23 Oct, with 1870 cases per day. Very much appears like a second wave despite remaining relatively high in the "down" period with 300-case peaks every week between the two highs. 3. Not sure what policy they changed after the first peak but there is a significant drop after that through early-mid July.
- sippeangelo 6y ago
  Keyword being "deaths". COVID is peaking and cases are 3 times worse than in June, but deaths are staying flat.