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> people ... don't disbelieve the coronavirus exists, they just think it's not dangerous enough to warrant [quarantine] That's operationally the same thing. I

> people ... don't disbelieve the coronavirus exists, they just think it's not dangerous enough to warrant [quarantine] That's operationally the same thing. In other words, if that belief is wrong they're still killing people. Let's be cautious. Once we have good testing we can know where the virus is and contain it without such a drastic quarantine. That's the rational, non-partisan thing to do.

crooked-v 6y ago
We know where it is. It's everywhere, because huge parts of the country have given up on even trying to keep it contained. As of today we're at about 10 million cumulative cases (a full 3% of the country's entire population), 132,000 cases per day, and the cases-per-day count doubling every 20-30 days. That's a progression that gives you millions of new cases a day just by May.
- petertodd 6y ago
  > 10 million cumulative cases Known cases. True numbers are likely to be much higher than that. For starters, the estimated percentage of entirely asymptomatic infections is around 18% to 80%(1), with many more getting only mild symptoms. Many if not most people with mild symptoms will never bother to get tested. It would not be surprising if 100 million Americans have in fact been infected already. That's the kind of ratio of known to actual cases that antibody testing has repeatedly found. And even that may be an underestimate, as antibody testing doesn't measure T-cell response. 1) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470698/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470698/
  - appleseed538 6y ago
    Your order of magnitude is off (log2 = n + * 3)
- JoshuaDavid 6y ago
  132000 cases per day, doubling every 30 days, would be about 328 million additional verified infections by the beginning of May. You may note that exceeds the total number of Americans who have not already tested positive, which gives a pretty good hint that model can't actually reflect reality for that long. Additionally, the 10M number is the number of people who have tested positive, not the number who have been infected, which is probably several times higher than that even. So yeah. I doubt we have even two more doublings ahead of us, at least as measured by hospitalizations (positive tests are a bad measure because early testing was very lacking). Less than one wouldn't surprise me.
hnready1221 6y ago
I don't subscribe to any side, but on this topic I much prefer the freedom of movement that I get to enjoy in the U.S., especially in some states. I'd hate to be locked up like they were in Australia and now Europe. Even the bay area was getting a bit much for me with their random restrictions on outdoor spaces. There is no doubt that the virus is deadly, and more deadly for certain age groups, but let's not treat it like the great plague. On top of that, with mask use and distancing the spread is negligible, especially outside. When did we get so risk-averse where every death should be prevented no matter the cost? Many people die for various reasons. You can maximize your age by sitting inside a cushioned room all your life to limit injuries, but I prefer to not live that way.
- cmurf 6y ago
  120,000+ infections and 1000+ deaths per day are negligible?
  - hnready1221 6y ago
    This is not what I said.
    - stone-monkey 6y ago
      I mean, I read your post, but it basically sounded like you wanted a full reopening like Texas but allowing the people who want to wear masks to wear masks. Is that not what you're advocating for?
      - o-__-o 6y ago
        Maybe part of your problem is this >basically sounded You whittled down this persons post to a basically sounded. When you discard information you create your own vacuum. The person said nothing about a full reopening and instead was pointing out how travel should not be limited like other countries who have and are still in worse situations. >is that not And talking in weird negatives doesn’t help your case either.
o-__-o 6y ago
I never got tested, but I had covid in a really horrible way. How does good testing help quarantine when there are people who are gettin the virus and not getting tested (some of which still heading out into the public creating more asymptomatic patients) Further the virus can remain viable on surfaces for days, weeks if frozen. How does testing (combined with the above, ppl not getting tested) help in any way to know where the virus is. I think it will identify hotspots but then what. Texas was a hit spot and still had 4000 cases/day. Testing didn’t help reduce case count, but it did indirectly limit the effectiveness of the emergency room...
- mg794613 6y ago
  How do you know you had Corona if you did not get tested and how does it relate to the rest of your argument?
  - o-__-o 6y ago
    Oh well I don’t normally have shortness of breath or chest pains in the middle of the summer. Also had extreme brain fog and couldn’t remember howto code (true story). Also was coughing for the entire month of may. Oh cardiologist said I had a heart attack and partly failed a stress test, but couldn’t find any reasons for a healthy man in his mid30s to have had a heart attack. Pulmonologist told me I had lung scarring and I had to do breathing exercises. Hmm what else happened. There was also stabbing back pain. My feet and hands were tingly and numb for two weeks, I lost all feeling below my knees.... But the pcr and igG tests all came back negative. Doc thinks pcr test was too late and serology test was false negative. At this point I don’t care about the tests I know what I experienced and it matches up to other bad covid experiences Forgot to add, I have pericarditis now and have been told to rest and go easy for the remainder of the year

crooked-v 6y ago

We know where it is. It's everywhere, because huge parts of the country have given up on even trying to keep it contained. As of today we're at about 10 million cumulative cases (a full 3% of the country's entire population), 132,000 cases per day, and the cases-per-day count doubling every 20-30 days. That's a progression that gives you millions of new cases a day just by May.

petertodd 6y ago
> 10 million cumulative cases Known cases. True numbers are likely to be much higher than that. For starters, the estimated percentage of entirely asymptomatic infections is around 18% to 80%(1), with many more getting only mild symptoms. Many if not most people with mild symptoms will never bother to get tested. It would not be surprising if 100 million Americans have in fact been infected already. That's the kind of ratio of known to actual cases that antibody testing has repeatedly found. And even that may be an underestimate, as antibody testing doesn't measure T-cell response. 1) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470698/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470698/
- appleseed538 6y ago
  Your order of magnitude is off (log2 = n + * 3)
JoshuaDavid 6y ago
132000 cases per day, doubling every 30 days, would be about 328 million additional verified infections by the beginning of May. You may note that exceeds the total number of Americans who have not already tested positive, which gives a pretty good hint that model can't actually reflect reality for that long. Additionally, the 10M number is the number of people who have tested positive, not the number who have been infected, which is probably several times higher than that even. So yeah. I doubt we have even two more doublings ahead of us, at least as measured by hospitalizations (positive tests are a bad measure because early testing was very lacking). Less than one wouldn't surprise me.

hnready1221 6y ago

I don't subscribe to any side, but on this topic I much prefer the freedom of movement that I get to enjoy in the U.S., especially in some states. I'd hate to be locked up like they were in Australia and now Europe. Even the bay area was getting a bit much for me with their random restrictions on outdoor spaces. There is no doubt that the virus is deadly, and more deadly for certain age groups, but let's not treat it like the great plague. On top of that, with mask use and distancing the spread is negligible, especially outside. When did we get so risk-averse where every death should be prevented no matter the cost? Many people die for various reasons. You can maximize your age by sitting inside a cushioned room all your life to limit injuries, but I prefer to not live that way.

cmurf 6y ago
120,000+ infections and 1000+ deaths per day are negligible?
- hnready1221 6y ago
  This is not what I said.
  - stone-monkey 6y ago
    I mean, I read your post, but it basically sounded like you wanted a full reopening like Texas but allowing the people who want to wear masks to wear masks. Is that not what you're advocating for?
    - o-__-o 6y ago
      Maybe part of your problem is this >basically sounded You whittled down this persons post to a basically sounded. When you discard information you create your own vacuum. The person said nothing about a full reopening and instead was pointing out how travel should not be limited like other countries who have and are still in worse situations. >is that not And talking in weird negatives doesn’t help your case either.

o-__-o 6y ago

I never got tested, but I had covid in a really horrible way. How does good testing help quarantine when there are people who are gettin the virus and not getting tested (some of which still heading out into the public creating more asymptomatic patients) Further the virus can remain viable on surfaces for days, weeks if frozen. How does testing (combined with the above, ppl not getting tested) help in any way to know where the virus is. I think it will identify hotspots but then what. Texas was a hit spot and still had 4000 cases/day. Testing didn’t help reduce case count, but it did indirectly limit the effectiveness of the emergency room...

mg794613 6y ago
How do you know you had Corona if you did not get tested and how does it relate to the rest of your argument?
- o-__-o 6y ago
  Oh well I don’t normally have shortness of breath or chest pains in the middle of the summer. Also had extreme brain fog and couldn’t remember howto code (true story). Also was coughing for the entire month of may. Oh cardiologist said I had a heart attack and partly failed a stress test, but couldn’t find any reasons for a healthy man in his mid30s to have had a heart attack. Pulmonologist told me I had lung scarring and I had to do breathing exercises. Hmm what else happened. There was also stabbing back pain. My feet and hands were tingly and numb for two weeks, I lost all feeling below my knees.... But the pcr and igG tests all came back negative. Doc thinks pcr test was too late and serology test was false negative. At this point I don’t care about the tests I know what I experienced and it matches up to other bad covid experiences Forgot to add, I have pericarditis now and have been told to rest and go easy for the remainder of the year