>I think your whole comment is correct, but instead of not accounting for the propensity factor, they do... just badly :) In particular, Trump was extremely cr

>I think your whole comment is correct, but instead of not accounting for the propensity factor, they do... just badly :) In particular, Trump was extremely critical of polls and mail-in voting, and we have pretty much confirmed that his statements caused his supporters to avoid mail-in voting, so it's not too much of a leap to suggest the same thing happened with polls. Notably, this is a different effect from 2016, where IIRC Trump appealed to "non-likely" voters whose responses were inappropriately discounted.