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> 538 has corrections for bias already. They seem to have worked in this instance See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25017810 https://news.ycombinator.co
by alentist 6y ago
> 538 has corrections for bias already. They seem to have worked in this instance
See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25017810 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25017810
- roenxi 6y agoYou are pointing at evidence that 538 correctly called 11/12 races using statistics, and their confident call on a Biden president withstood a 4-7% swing (!!). The existence of bias doesn't invalidate their predictions. Everyone knows that polls can be badly off target in a biased way - that isn't a new phenomenon. When they talk about X% chance of Y being president they should be optimising to the outcome, not the margins.