If a weather forecaster can predict the temperature next week to within a few degrees and can tell you when they are sure it will rain, when they are sure it wi

If a weather forecaster can predict the temperature next week to within a few degrees and can tell you when they are sure it will rain, when they are sure it will be sunny, and provide a good guess as to rain or shine on most of the other days you would consider that person a good weather forecaster. Do you expect the weather report for the next week to nail the temperature of every day next week to within 1 degree? The pollsters can tell you if a hurricane is coming, they can tell you when the weather might shift significantly (albeit not be absolutely certain about which direction it is shifting) and they can give you a very good idea of what to expect even if they do not get the exact temp for each day correct.