4 ms·

I'm not sure that's quite fair. They do write some excellent retrospectives and admit when they made mistakes, at least more so than almost any other news outle

I'm not sure that's quite fair. They do write some excellent retrospectives and admit when they made mistakes, at least more so than almost any other news outlet I've seen: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pund... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-i-got-wrong-in-2019/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-i-got-wrong-in-201... https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/what-harry-got-wrong-in-2016/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/what-harry-got-wrong-in-2... I have noticed them getting a bit more defensive recently which is irritating, but I think they are honest. There's only so much "garbage in garbage out" they can compensate for. If this ends up at +74 EV, which is where it looks to be heading, it'll be "Z=-.6" prediction (not actually normally distributed, but it's the easy calculation) prediction, meaning 27% of the outcomes were more Trump. It's not great, but I appreciate them giving a realistic model.

systemvoltage 6y ago
Thanks for these, I've been following it for last few months. Nate Silver still makes fun of Betting odds: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325186985988935680 https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325186985988935680 I don't see him posting how the Bettfair was way more accurate than his polls. I also get that Nate Silver doesnt poll himself, but he aggreates polling information, assign grades and mixes it into his formula. I just have zero trust in it. It's not like we get to test his predictions often. 1 sample size every 4 years.
- robryan 6y ago
  Biden got out to around $4-$5 during election night. I wouldn’t put much weight in the betting when it appeared to fail to account for the expected composition of postal votes. Trump should have been at best a slight favorite before the effect of the postals started showing in the counts.

systemvoltage 6y ago

Thanks for these, I've been following it for last few months. Nate Silver still makes fun of Betting odds: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325186985988935680 https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325186985988935680 I don't see him posting how the Bettfair was way more accurate than his polls. I also get that Nate Silver doesnt poll himself, but he aggreates polling information, assign grades and mixes it into his formula. I just have zero trust in it. It's not like we get to test his predictions often. 1 sample size every 4 years.

robryan 6y ago
Biden got out to around $4-$5 during election night. I wouldn’t put much weight in the betting when it appeared to fail to account for the expected composition of postal votes. Trump should have been at best a slight favorite before the effect of the postals started showing in the counts.