2 ms·

I know they were within the margin of error, but the polls were all systematically within the margin of error in the same direction. Did a single poll that was

by js2 6y ago

I know they were within the margin of error, but the polls were all systematically within the margin of error in the same direction. Did a single poll that was wrong predict at GOP win and end up a Democratic win?

srtjstjsj 6y ago
Yes.
- js2 6y ago
  I can’t find that via Google. Help me out here.
  - randallsquared 6y ago
    "poll predicted Trump win" brings back a number of results for me, including https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-2020-donald-trump-win-poll-democracy-institute-joe-biden-swing-states https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-202...
    - js2 6y ago
      Ah sorry, I was thinking of down ballot races and polls that would have had enough reputation to make it into the Economist or 538 polling averages. I'll do some more searching. The DI poll is basically a push poll with questions like "Who do you believe is telling the truth about alleged Biden family corruption?” https://democracyinstitute.org/poll-donald-trump-set-to-win-us-presidency-by-electoral-college-landslide/ https://democracyinstitute.org/poll-donald-trump-set-to-win-...
TheCoelacanth 6y ago
That has happened in basically every election. Errors in polls tend to be correlated across states. If they were independent, 538 would have been predicting a ~0% chance of Trump winning instead of ~10%.