4 ms·

This election should be a wake up call to entire country and Democrats in particular. There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the pos

by koolba 6y ago

This election should be a wake up call to entire country and Democrats in particular. There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the post. If it were not for the pandemic I'm convinced the Trump turnout for this election would have produced results rivaling Reagan in 1984. Even with a pandemic he was able to drive more voters to the polls on election day than any point in American history.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Even the Trump campaign said their base of old, white voters were dying off [1]. In another 4 years, another 7.3 million older voters (typically conservative voters) will have aged out. The country will continue to turn blue [2]. Democrats still have a lot of work to do on messaging. This was high tide for conservative votes. [3] [1] https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/11/04/old-white-men-are-dying-so-trump-looked-elsewhere-for-votes-in-florida-1334166 https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/11/04/old... [2] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-par... [3] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-mille...
- LakesideDrive 6y ago
  If you can't convince the voters, import them. One of the remarkable things to come from this election is that Trump gained in practically every demographic except White men. Are White Americans finally seeing the writing on the wall and realising that they cannot vote their way out of this?
- laverya 6y ago
  Trump appears to have done better with minority voters than any other Republican presidential candidate in recent memory, which will do something to counter the 'aging out' that you describe.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    I haven’t dived into the exit poll data yet (by county, race, income, and age), but it really depends on which states those voters reside in. If they’re in states almost blue (Texas and Georgia, for example), it’s moot. Florida is likely a lost cause (between conservative minorities and the elderly), but you don’t need Florida to win national elections (clearly). If the electoral college is done away with, it’s also moot, as there is enough popular vote margin at the national level to always go blue.
    - laverya 6y ago
      I don't understand your meaning. Texas and Georgia are almost blue at least partly because minority voters overwhelmingly vote blue, and the proportion of minorities has been increasing over time. Changing that vote share to 60-40 instead of 80-20 would do quite a lot to solidify republicans in those states. And with Trump showing that it's possible to increase the Republican vote share among minorities... I'd expect political strategists to focus more effort there in the future. A self-fulfilling prophecy, in a way.
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        Across the board, the GOP would need to convert minorities to consistent GOP voters faster than the electorate conversion (where the electorate tilts progressive) occurs naturally due to older voters dying and newer voters turning 18 or naturalizing, and this conversion needs to happen even faster in states that are turning blue (to overcome sociopolitical demographic momentum). I will add that just because Trump was able to pull more minority votes doesn't mean the GOP will be able to do the same; different messaging. Someone supporting Trump is unlikely to vote for Mitt Romney (who is, imho, a reasonable conservative), for example. Also, historically, the GOP typically doesn't put forth public policy that is friendly to most minorities and immigrants. Sorry my thesis wasn't clear, although I appreciate the opportunity to refine the message. Better to get the kinks out here before speaking to an audience IRL.
- ThrowawayR2 6y ago
  Not necessarily. Note that minority votes for Trump increased (even among blacks) in the 2020 election: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/here-are-the-voter-demographics-for-the-2020-presidential-election/vi-BB1aH4AW https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/here-are-the-voter-d... The Democrats really need to get on the ball and start listening to the public.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned that President Trump should not concede defeat in the 2020 presidential election in part because Republicans will "never" be able to elect another president from their party again. "If Republicans don't challenge and change the U.S. election system, there will never be another Republican president elected again," Graham said Sunday on Fox News. "President Trump should not concede. We're down to less — 10,000 votes in Georgia. He's going to win North Carolina. We have gone from 93,000 votes to less than 20,000 votes in Arizona, where more — more votes to be counted." https://thehill.com/homenews/525063-lindsey-graham-if-trump-concedes-election-republicans-will-never-elect-another https://thehill.com/homenews/525063-lindsey-graham-if-trump-...
- rayiner 6y ago
  Democrats have been saying this for decades and it hasn’t panned out and won’t pan out: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-... > While older Black voters look as if they’ll vote for Biden by margins similar to Clinton’s in 2016, Trump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. > It’s a similar story with younger Hispanic Americans, a group where Trump has also made gains. According to UCLA Nationscape’s polling, Trump is attracting 35 percent of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22 percent who backed him four years ago in the CCES data. UCLA polling in battleground states shows that Black voters 30-60 are three times more likely to trust congressional Republicans that Black voters over 60 (21% versus 8%). In the 18-29 group it’s almost four times (29%).
ModernMech 6y ago
> There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the post. Trump under-performed his 2016 margins in 38 states, including many deep red ones.
- laverya 6y ago
  Yes, Trump underperformed relative to 2016 - and yet the Republicans made gains in the House, and maintained control of the Senate. The fact that the presidential race is close enough to still be under contention days after election night should be evidence enough that there wasn't a significant blue wave!
  - ModernMech 6y ago
    The Democrats maintained control of the House. There were 435 seats up for election, and a majority went to the Democrats. In 2018 they had their biggest House win ever, so it's not that surprising that a couple seats when back toward the Republicans. Senate control is still an open issue. There will be a runoff in GA in January to determine control. The only reason this was under contention days after the election is that PA wasn't able to start counting their mail in ballots until election day. This was a choice made by the PA legislature. I don't know why. If PA was allowed to precanvas, PA would have announced like FL on election night and this would have been over Tuesday.
    - laverya 6y ago
      > so it's not that surprising that a couple seats when back toward the Republicans. My understanding is that Republicans were projected to lose even more seats this election - in the 10-20 range - and instead gained seats. So yeah, surprising. I'm not entirely sure how Georgia's senate runoffs work. > The only reason this was under contention days after the election is that PA wasn't able to start counting their mail in ballots until election day. This was a choice made by the PA legislature. I don't know why. If PA was allowed to precanvas, PA would have announced like FL on election night and this would have been over Tuesday. Well, maybe. PA still looks to be within 50k votes, and while it's possible that precanvassing would have allowed the election to be called on Tuesday night, the policy of accepting votes postmarked up to election night even if they arrived late would still leave things potentially up for grabs. And there's a LOT of close states this year. (And to answer "why", I believe it's to prevent vote counts from leaking before people actually go and vote) The more general point that "If there was a blue wave, we wouldn't be worrying about states with margins of under 50k votes or talking about how control of the senate will be determined later" still stands.

by koolba 6y ago

toomuchtodo 6y ago

Even the Trump campaign said their base of old, white voters were dying off [1]. In another 4 years, another 7.3 million older voters (typically conservative voters) will have aged out. The country will continue to turn blue [2]. Democrats still have a lot of work to do on messaging. This was high tide for conservative votes. [3] [1] https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/11/04/old-white-men-are-dying-so-trump-looked-elsewhere-for-votes-in-florida-1334166 https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/11/04/old... [2] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-par... [3] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-mille...

LakesideDrive 6y ago
If you can't convince the voters, import them. One of the remarkable things to come from this election is that Trump gained in practically every demographic except White men. Are White Americans finally seeing the writing on the wall and realising that they cannot vote their way out of this?
laverya 6y ago
Trump appears to have done better with minority voters than any other Republican presidential candidate in recent memory, which will do something to counter the 'aging out' that you describe.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  I haven’t dived into the exit poll data yet (by county, race, income, and age), but it really depends on which states those voters reside in. If they’re in states almost blue (Texas and Georgia, for example), it’s moot. Florida is likely a lost cause (between conservative minorities and the elderly), but you don’t need Florida to win national elections (clearly). If the electoral college is done away with, it’s also moot, as there is enough popular vote margin at the national level to always go blue.
  - laverya 6y ago
    I don't understand your meaning. Texas and Georgia are almost blue at least partly because minority voters overwhelmingly vote blue, and the proportion of minorities has been increasing over time. Changing that vote share to 60-40 instead of 80-20 would do quite a lot to solidify republicans in those states. And with Trump showing that it's possible to increase the Republican vote share among minorities... I'd expect political strategists to focus more effort there in the future. A self-fulfilling prophecy, in a way.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      Across the board, the GOP would need to convert minorities to consistent GOP voters faster than the electorate conversion (where the electorate tilts progressive) occurs naturally due to older voters dying and newer voters turning 18 or naturalizing, and this conversion needs to happen even faster in states that are turning blue (to overcome sociopolitical demographic momentum). I will add that just because Trump was able to pull more minority votes doesn't mean the GOP will be able to do the same; different messaging. Someone supporting Trump is unlikely to vote for Mitt Romney (who is, imho, a reasonable conservative), for example. Also, historically, the GOP typically doesn't put forth public policy that is friendly to most minorities and immigrants. Sorry my thesis wasn't clear, although I appreciate the opportunity to refine the message. Better to get the kinks out here before speaking to an audience IRL.
ThrowawayR2 6y ago
Not necessarily. Note that minority votes for Trump increased (even among blacks) in the 2020 election: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/here-are-the-voter-demographics-for-the-2020-presidential-election/vi-BB1aH4AW https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/here-are-the-voter-d... The Democrats really need to get on the ball and start listening to the public.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned that President Trump should not concede defeat in the 2020 presidential election in part because Republicans will "never" be able to elect another president from their party again. "If Republicans don't challenge and change the U.S. election system, there will never be another Republican president elected again," Graham said Sunday on Fox News. "President Trump should not concede. We're down to less — 10,000 votes in Georgia. He's going to win North Carolina. We have gone from 93,000 votes to less than 20,000 votes in Arizona, where more — more votes to be counted." https://thehill.com/homenews/525063-lindsey-graham-if-trump-concedes-election-republicans-will-never-elect-another https://thehill.com/homenews/525063-lindsey-graham-if-trump-...
rayiner 6y ago
Democrats have been saying this for decades and it hasn’t panned out and won’t pan out: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-... > While older Black voters look as if they’ll vote for Biden by margins similar to Clinton’s in 2016, Trump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. > It’s a similar story with younger Hispanic Americans, a group where Trump has also made gains. According to UCLA Nationscape’s polling, Trump is attracting 35 percent of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22 percent who backed him four years ago in the CCES data. UCLA polling in battleground states shows that Black voters 30-60 are three times more likely to trust congressional Republicans that Black voters over 60 (21% versus 8%). In the 18-29 group it’s almost four times (29%).

ModernMech 6y ago

> There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the post. Trump under-performed his 2016 margins in 38 states, including many deep red ones.

laverya 6y ago
Yes, Trump underperformed relative to 2016 - and yet the Republicans made gains in the House, and maintained control of the Senate. The fact that the presidential race is close enough to still be under contention days after election night should be evidence enough that there wasn't a significant blue wave!
- ModernMech 6y ago
  The Democrats maintained control of the House. There were 435 seats up for election, and a majority went to the Democrats. In 2018 they had their biggest House win ever, so it's not that surprising that a couple seats when back toward the Republicans. Senate control is still an open issue. There will be a runoff in GA in January to determine control. The only reason this was under contention days after the election is that PA wasn't able to start counting their mail in ballots until election day. This was a choice made by the PA legislature. I don't know why. If PA was allowed to precanvas, PA would have announced like FL on election night and this would have been over Tuesday.
  - laverya 6y ago
    > so it's not that surprising that a couple seats when back toward the Republicans. My understanding is that Republicans were projected to lose even more seats this election - in the 10-20 range - and instead gained seats. So yeah, surprising. I'm not entirely sure how Georgia's senate runoffs work. > The only reason this was under contention days after the election is that PA wasn't able to start counting their mail in ballots until election day. This was a choice made by the PA legislature. I don't know why. If PA was allowed to precanvas, PA would have announced like FL on election night and this would have been over Tuesday. Well, maybe. PA still looks to be within 50k votes, and while it's possible that precanvassing would have allowed the election to be called on Tuesday night, the policy of accepting votes postmarked up to election night even if they arrived late would still leave things potentially up for grabs. And there's a LOT of close states this year. (And to answer "why", I believe it's to prevent vote counts from leaking before people actually go and vote) The more general point that "If there was a blue wave, we wouldn't be worrying about states with margins of under 50k votes or talking about how control of the senate will be determined later" still stands.