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There was some interesting game theory stuff going on there, where AP and Fox called Arizona early, but other networks didn't feel it was safe. And then Nevada

There was some interesting game theory stuff going on there, where AP and Fox called Arizona early, but other networks didn't feel it was safe. And then Nevada has obviously been won for days, but nobody was calling it because that would have put Fox and AP over 270. So all the networks just started waiting for PA rather than calling the obvious for Nevada.

masklinn 6y ago
> but other networks didn't feel it was safe. And might have been right, Biden's lead in AZ keeps shrinking, 3 days ago his lead was 25% of the ballots left to count, now it's 15. > And then Nevada has obviously been won for days, but nobody was calling it because that would have put Fox and AP over 270. Although Biden's lead has only grown there saying that it's "obviously won" is a touch optimistic.
- Trasmatta 6y ago
  > Although Biden's lead has only grown there saying that it's "obviously won" is a touch optimistic. No, if you follow the election analysts like Nate Cohn, Nate Silver, Dave Wasserman, and especially Jon Ralston (who is "the guy" for Nevada elections), Biden has been the clear winner for nearly two days. And also AP almost immediately called Nevada after the Pennsylvania drop, so they were definitely waiting on that.
- Retric 6y ago
  Analysis is more complex than just what percentage of ballots remain. It was widely expected for Pennsylvania to have a decisive swap when Trump had a seemingly huge lead and Georgia a very red state was predicted as being a vastly closer race. North Carolina could have also been called as leaning Trump much sooner, but overall it was a fairly close race. Voting by people in large groups are predictable and people spend a lot of effort getting this right. Out of 50 states exactly one was significantly different from predictions based on a significant shift in a specific group which is easy to miss in statewide polls.
nojito 6y ago
AP and Fox have access to proprietary survey data for AZ.
- voisin 6y ago
  Source?
- briandear 6y ago
  Survey data isn’t votes counted.
briandear 6y ago
At the time, Nevada had a 8000 vote margin with over 100,000 votes outstanding. The real question is why swing states paused counting.
prh8 6y ago
It was not obvious for Nevada, because the outstanding votes were the last 2 days of drop-off, which has skewed red, and there has been uncertainty about how Vegas would react considering Covid's effect on their economy.

masklinn 6y ago

> but other networks didn't feel it was safe. And might have been right, Biden's lead in AZ keeps shrinking, 3 days ago his lead was 25% of the ballots left to count, now it's 15. > And then Nevada has obviously been won for days, but nobody was calling it because that would have put Fox and AP over 270. Although Biden's lead has only grown there saying that it's "obviously won" is a touch optimistic.

Trasmatta 6y ago
> Although Biden's lead has only grown there saying that it's "obviously won" is a touch optimistic. No, if you follow the election analysts like Nate Cohn, Nate Silver, Dave Wasserman, and especially Jon Ralston (who is "the guy" for Nevada elections), Biden has been the clear winner for nearly two days. And also AP almost immediately called Nevada after the Pennsylvania drop, so they were definitely waiting on that.
Retric 6y ago
Analysis is more complex than just what percentage of ballots remain. It was widely expected for Pennsylvania to have a decisive swap when Trump had a seemingly huge lead and Georgia a very red state was predicted as being a vastly closer race. North Carolina could have also been called as leaning Trump much sooner, but overall it was a fairly close race. Voting by people in large groups are predictable and people spend a lot of effort getting this right. Out of 50 states exactly one was significantly different from predictions based on a significant shift in a specific group which is easy to miss in statewide polls.

nojito 6y ago

AP and Fox have access to proprietary survey data for AZ.

voisin 6y ago
Source?
briandear 6y ago
Survey data isn’t votes counted.

briandear 6y ago

At the time, Nevada had a 8000 vote margin with over 100,000 votes outstanding. The real question is why swing states paused counting.

prh8 6y ago

It was not obvious for Nevada, because the outstanding votes were the last 2 days of drop-off, which has skewed red, and there has been uncertainty about how Vegas would react considering Covid's effect on their economy.