That is indeed conventional wisdom. But as https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mission https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeli

That is indeed conventional wisdom. But as https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mission https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mi... reports, in mid-October Elon Musk was claiming a fighting chance of launching a rocket there by 2024. With that being a type of rocket that he intends to be making in volume for uses near Earth. Given his past over-optimism, I'd take good odds against him in 2024, but would take an even money bet that he makes it for the 2026 window. And given that he's already gearing up for mass production, he'll be able to send a bunch at the following 2029 window. If he misses 2026, shift those dates to 2029 and 2031 instead. (The windows come every 26 months, see http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm for a list of dates.) Either way, SpaceX is apparently on track to launch a fleet of ships to Mars in a decade or so. With plans that the first launch will get there and explore, the second will be a bunch of ships that land and set up a base, and the third will hopefully be able to make a return trip using fuel produced on Mars. From there, he's aiming for serious colonization. You may call him delusional. I certainly did in 2008 when he was trying to get a rocket program off the ground using his private fortune. But I would suggest not underestimating his ability to achieve on his vision (if not on the timeline that he pushes for).