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I see the current legal status of Mars as similar to the legal status of the New World after 1494 when Pope Alexander VI divided it between Portugal and Spain,

by btilly 6y ago

I see the current legal status of Mars as similar to the legal status of the New World after 1494 when Pope Alexander VI divided it between Portugal and Spain, and those countries agreed on exactly how to do it. We see how that held up. Or for another example look at the colonization of the USA. There were overlapping legal claims to most land, with the same plot having been given in a grant by the King before the revolution, by the state, by Congress, and some innocent pioneer actually went and lived there knowing none of that. The way we resolved this was consistently in favor of the squatters who lived there. On the same principle, conflicting legal claims to Mars should be resolved in favor of people who actually go to live there. And guess what? We're looking a likely future where in a few years SpaceX is able to get there in volume while nobody else can do better than occasionally land small robotic vehicles at great expense. Who will be establishing the facts on the ground? Doubly so if Elon winds up financing a lot of it by replacing long distance airplanes with reusable suborbital rockets. Despite SpaceX not being a sovereign government, the implied military capabilities here on Earth are quite significant...

paxys 6y ago
If we are very lucky we may see a single exploration mission or two to Mars in our lifetime. Saying SpaceX is a few years away from taking people there in volume is very delusional. Colonial law on Mars is something our great great great great grandkids may need to worry about, if even that.
- btilly 6y ago
  That is indeed conventional wisdom. But as https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mission https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mi... reports, in mid-October Elon Musk was claiming a fighting chance of launching a rocket there by 2024. With that being a type of rocket that he intends to be making in volume for uses near Earth. Given his past over-optimism, I'd take good odds against him in 2024, but would take an even money bet that he makes it for the 2026 window. And given that he's already gearing up for mass production, he'll be able to send a bunch at the following 2029 window. If he misses 2026, shift those dates to 2029 and 2031 instead. (The windows come every 26 months, see http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm for a list of dates.) Either way, SpaceX is apparently on track to launch a fleet of ships to Mars in a decade or so. With plans that the first launch will get there and explore, the second will be a bunch of ships that land and set up a base, and the third will hopefully be able to make a return trip using fuel produced on Mars. From there, he's aiming for serious colonization. You may call him delusional. I certainly did in 2008 when he was trying to get a rocket program off the ground using his private fortune. But I would suggest not underestimating his ability to achieve on his vision (if not on the timeline that he pushes for).

by btilly 6y ago

paxys 6y ago

If we are very lucky we may see a single exploration mission or two to Mars in our lifetime. Saying SpaceX is a few years away from taking people there in volume is very delusional. Colonial law on Mars is something our great great great great grandkids may need to worry about, if even that.

btilly 6y ago
That is indeed conventional wisdom. But as https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mission https://www.foxnews.com/science/musk-4-year-timeline-mars-mi... reports, in mid-October Elon Musk was claiming a fighting chance of launching a rocket there by 2024. With that being a type of rocket that he intends to be making in volume for uses near Earth. Given his past over-optimism, I'd take good odds against him in 2024, but would take an even money bet that he makes it for the 2026 window. And given that he's already gearing up for mass production, he'll be able to send a bunch at the following 2029 window. If he misses 2026, shift those dates to 2029 and 2031 instead. (The windows come every 26 months, see http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm for a list of dates.) Either way, SpaceX is apparently on track to launch a fleet of ships to Mars in a decade or so. With plans that the first launch will get there and explore, the second will be a bunch of ships that land and set up a base, and the third will hopefully be able to make a return trip using fuel produced on Mars. From there, he's aiming for serious colonization. You may call him delusional. I certainly did in 2008 when he was trying to get a rocket program off the ground using his private fortune. But I would suggest not underestimating his ability to achieve on his vision (if not on the timeline that he pushes for).