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I doubt that this’ll happen. Gasoline is only financially viable because of oil refinery at scale. Once electrification begins to take hold gasoline prices are

I doubt that this’ll happen. Gasoline is only financially viable because of oil refinery at scale. Once electrification begins to take hold gasoline prices are going to suffer destabilizing swings as low demand drives prices down and bankrupt refineries drive prices up again. These swings are going to drive more consumers over to EVs for purely economic reasons, since at least an EV is price stable to charge. Once it’s done I doubt there’ll be enough hobbyist gasoline users around to fund a single refinery, let alone any distribution mechanisms. What few refineries that survive will be retooled (at great cost) to produce either the precursors for plastics, or kerosene for aviation fuel. What few ICE vehicles that will continue to work will probably use something akin to biodiesel, something doable in your shed if you’re brave, but extremely rare overall.

akgerber 6y ago
There will likely still be significant military & other 'off-grid' demand for liquid fuels into the indefinite future.
- drra 6y ago
  Don't see much demand for hay from military.
  - arethuza 6y ago
    What about the British Army - it has more horses than tanks!
  - PoachedSausage 6y ago
    Coldstream Guards must get through a bit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coldstream_Guards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coldstream_Guards
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  A lot of that will either be kerosene or feedstock based diesel compatible fuel; not stuff you’ll be able to feed your classic BMW. In general though a lot of “off grid” stuff is going to heavily prefer solar + batteries where possible, since it’s much easier to keep that running without having to constantly go into town for supplies.
gambiting 6y ago
I think you will be forever able to buy petrol, but at some stupid price. But enthusiasts are known to pay premium for their hobbies. Recently I watched a video about someone driving one of the original Benz "cars" in Germany, really, a 100 years old carriage with a single-piston engine - which is all fine, except that the engine runs on Ether Petroleum, which is only still produced for medical reasons.....so any time they want to pull it out of storage, they literally just buy several bottles out of a pharmacy. Hell, as I mentioned in another comment - if you live in UK and are willing pay premium(like £5/litre) for it, you can still purchase leaded petrol for your classic vehicle which you stubbornly refuse to convert to regular unleaded because "collector value" is a thing.
- Ichthypresbyter 6y ago
  > the engine runs on Ether Petroleum, which is only still produced for medical reasons.....so any time they want to pull it out of storage, they literally just buy several bottles out of a pharmacy The first journey of any length in a motor car was made by Bertha Benz in her husband Karl's 1888. She bought her fuel at pharmacies...
  - gambiting 6y ago
    Ha, full circle then. Here's the video, if you're interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQ4vB55z0RE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQ4vB55z0RE
- sokoloff 6y ago
  Why don’t they just buy 100LL avgas? Well under £2/litre, widely available, rubber compatible, and the shelf stability is extremely long.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- soneil 6y ago
  Seems silly to pay so much for leaded fuel. I used to have a 1974 mini, and a single bottle of lead additive would last months.
lostgame 6y ago
Might be a less extreme example, but look at retro gaming fans, e.g. a few of the Sega Saturn nuts I know in the homebrew community will actually pay $400-800 for a single game that was originally $70-80: (I'm seeing $1175.47 here for a new copy) https://www.pricecharting.com/game/sega-saturn/panzer-dragoon-saga https://www.pricecharting.com/game/sega-saturn/panzer-dragoo... People will pay a premium to replicate an experience.
- rasz 6y ago
  This has nothing to do with gaming, its pure speculation.
ogre_codes 6y ago
> Once it’s done I doubt there’ll be enough hobbyist gasoline users around to fund a single refinery, Not sure what you mean by "enough", but even if gasoline goes away you'll still be able to buy Avgas which should be useful in cars. Plus there is a ton of equipment out there that burns gas which will drive some demand. Generators, two stroke mowers and equipment. There will be gas widely available for at least another 50 years. I do agree gas prices will go up quite a bit though. In particular, anywhere real estate is expensive gas stations will get driven out in favor of more profitable uses for the land.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  The only thing you listed that isn’t well on its way to electrification is aviation. And even in that space I expect general aviation to electrify first, since it’ll suffer badly under the price swings I mentioned. Commercial aviation mostly uses kerosene, so my comment above still holds. I’m actually in the market now for a lawn mower, and electric is price competitive once you factor in lifespan and maintenance costs. Plus I don’t have to deal with two stroke motors, which are awful things. I genuinely doubt that they’ll even sell gas lawn mowers by the end of this decade.
  - csours 6y ago
    FYI, I just switched from a battery electric mower to a manual reel mower because of shrinking battery capacity and expensive batteries. An extra battery costs well over 50% of a battery and mower together. I still have the mower, I just don't use it much anymore. I do use the battery powered strimmer/weed eater. I've thought about bodging my own battery pack, but I don't want to burn down my house.
    - ogre_codes 6y ago
      > FYI, I just switched from a battery electric mower to a manual reel mower because of shrinking battery capacity and expensive batteries. An extra battery costs well over 50% of a battery and mower together. I still have the mower, I just don't use it much anymore. I do use the battery powered strimmer/weed eater. Yep. The only reason I find it viable is because I built up a big supply of compatible battery powered tools. Prices for batteries are coming down though, hopefully this will trickle down to tool batteries as well because I want a couple more batteries for my chainsaw and really can't put out $300 for them right now.
rwmj 6y ago
My neighbour still has sacks of coal delivered for her fireplaces every few months, something which has likely been going on at her address for over 100 years. There's so much stuff that uses gasoline I can't imagine it will stop being produced even if it becomes quite niche.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  Unlike fireplaces, gasoline engines really don’t last that long. They also tend not to get into crashes very often. The vast majority of gasoline engines that are produced typically last about a decade or two. While we all think about the hand full of beloved 1960s sports cars that are carefully maintained by their enthusiast owners, the median gasoline engine is installed in a Toyota Corolla and will be melted down 13-17 years after its first produced. If we start electrifying now, the vast majority of gasoline engines will simply age out of the population on their own. This will happen faster if the electric equivalent gets cheaper, or if my hypothesis about gasoline prices turns out to be true.

akgerber 6y ago

There will likely still be significant military & other 'off-grid' demand for liquid fuels into the indefinite future.

drra 6y ago
Don't see much demand for hay from military.
- arethuza 6y ago
  What about the British Army - it has more horses than tanks!
- PoachedSausage 6y ago
  Coldstream Guards must get through a bit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coldstream_Guards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coldstream_Guards
ashtonkem 6y ago
A lot of that will either be kerosene or feedstock based diesel compatible fuel; not stuff you’ll be able to feed your classic BMW. In general though a lot of “off grid” stuff is going to heavily prefer solar + batteries where possible, since it’s much easier to keep that running without having to constantly go into town for supplies.

gambiting 6y ago

I think you will be forever able to buy petrol, but at some stupid price. But enthusiasts are known to pay premium for their hobbies. Recently I watched a video about someone driving one of the original Benz "cars" in Germany, really, a 100 years old carriage with a single-piston engine - which is all fine, except that the engine runs on Ether Petroleum, which is only still produced for medical reasons.....so any time they want to pull it out of storage, they literally just buy several bottles out of a pharmacy. Hell, as I mentioned in another comment - if you live in UK and are willing pay premium(like £5/litre) for it, you can still purchase leaded petrol for your classic vehicle which you stubbornly refuse to convert to regular unleaded because "collector value" is a thing.

Ichthypresbyter 6y ago
> the engine runs on Ether Petroleum, which is only still produced for medical reasons.....so any time they want to pull it out of storage, they literally just buy several bottles out of a pharmacy The first journey of any length in a motor car was made by Bertha Benz in her husband Karl's 1888. She bought her fuel at pharmacies...
- gambiting 6y ago
  Ha, full circle then. Here's the video, if you're interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQ4vB55z0RE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQ4vB55z0RE
sokoloff 6y ago
Why don’t they just buy 100LL avgas? Well under £2/litre, widely available, rubber compatible, and the shelf stability is extremely long.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
soneil 6y ago
Seems silly to pay so much for leaded fuel. I used to have a 1974 mini, and a single bottle of lead additive would last months.

lostgame 6y ago

Might be a less extreme example, but look at retro gaming fans, e.g. a few of the Sega Saturn nuts I know in the homebrew community will actually pay $400-800 for a single game that was originally $70-80: (I'm seeing $1175.47 here for a new copy) https://www.pricecharting.com/game/sega-saturn/panzer-dragoon-saga https://www.pricecharting.com/game/sega-saturn/panzer-dragoo... People will pay a premium to replicate an experience.

rasz 6y ago
This has nothing to do with gaming, its pure speculation.

ogre_codes 6y ago

> Once it’s done I doubt there’ll be enough hobbyist gasoline users around to fund a single refinery, Not sure what you mean by "enough", but even if gasoline goes away you'll still be able to buy Avgas which should be useful in cars. Plus there is a ton of equipment out there that burns gas which will drive some demand. Generators, two stroke mowers and equipment. There will be gas widely available for at least another 50 years. I do agree gas prices will go up quite a bit though. In particular, anywhere real estate is expensive gas stations will get driven out in favor of more profitable uses for the land.

ashtonkem 6y ago
The only thing you listed that isn’t well on its way to electrification is aviation. And even in that space I expect general aviation to electrify first, since it’ll suffer badly under the price swings I mentioned. Commercial aviation mostly uses kerosene, so my comment above still holds. I’m actually in the market now for a lawn mower, and electric is price competitive once you factor in lifespan and maintenance costs. Plus I don’t have to deal with two stroke motors, which are awful things. I genuinely doubt that they’ll even sell gas lawn mowers by the end of this decade.
- csours 6y ago
  FYI, I just switched from a battery electric mower to a manual reel mower because of shrinking battery capacity and expensive batteries. An extra battery costs well over 50% of a battery and mower together. I still have the mower, I just don't use it much anymore. I do use the battery powered strimmer/weed eater. I've thought about bodging my own battery pack, but I don't want to burn down my house.
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    > FYI, I just switched from a battery electric mower to a manual reel mower because of shrinking battery capacity and expensive batteries. An extra battery costs well over 50% of a battery and mower together. I still have the mower, I just don't use it much anymore. I do use the battery powered strimmer/weed eater. Yep. The only reason I find it viable is because I built up a big supply of compatible battery powered tools. Prices for batteries are coming down though, hopefully this will trickle down to tool batteries as well because I want a couple more batteries for my chainsaw and really can't put out $300 for them right now.

rwmj 6y ago

My neighbour still has sacks of coal delivered for her fireplaces every few months, something which has likely been going on at her address for over 100 years. There's so much stuff that uses gasoline I can't imagine it will stop being produced even if it becomes quite niche.

ashtonkem 6y ago
Unlike fireplaces, gasoline engines really don’t last that long. They also tend not to get into crashes very often. The vast majority of gasoline engines that are produced typically last about a decade or two. While we all think about the hand full of beloved 1960s sports cars that are carefully maintained by their enthusiast owners, the median gasoline engine is installed in a Toyota Corolla and will be melted down 13-17 years after its first produced. If we start electrifying now, the vast majority of gasoline engines will simply age out of the population on their own. This will happen faster if the electric equivalent gets cheaper, or if my hypothesis about gasoline prices turns out to be true.