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French case: « Le ministre de la santé a justifié le recours au confinement expliquant, sur la base des modélisations de l’Institut Pasteur, que « si nous n’avi
by tasogare 6y ago
French case: « Le ministre de la santé a justifié le recours au confinement expliquant, sur la base des modélisations de l’Institut Pasteur, que « si nous n’avions rien fait, il y aurait eu 9 000 patients atteints du Covid en réanimation à la mi-novembre ». Si le confinement est bien respecté, 6 000 patients seront en réanimation à cette échéance ; « la seconde vague sera alors moins intense que la première », a poursuivi le ministre. »
https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/11/05/covid-19-certains-commerces-fermeront-a-22-heures-a-paris-annonce-anne-hidalgo_6058573_3244.html https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/11/05/covid-19-c...
So basically 67 millions French are under lockdown to avoid... 3000 additional people being hospitalized. Pure madness.
- crooked-v 6y ago3000 people in one month, from a disease that exhibits exponential spread through the population.
- SamReidHughes 6y agoLogistic spread, actually.
- WildParser 6y agoIf you look closely the mathematics is all Gompertz-Functions. Big expansion in small groups, burning locally too fast to maintain a continuous exponential fire. This results in seasonal dynamics just like a corona-virus. Usually if you look at death by "date of death" you see Gompertz-Functions all around. If you look at death by "reporting date" you often see a very uneven lag forming some exponentials...
- jobigoud 6y ago> 3000 additional people being hospitalized. Not merely hospitalized, but in intensive care units. Do you know how many intensive care units we have? 9000 people in ICU is the saturation point, that's why it's quoted.