5 ms·

Very good. All those lockdowns, which are privations of liberty worse than what happen under war time (while yielding way less deaths), are totally incomprehens

Very good. All those lockdowns, which are privations of liberty worse than what happen under war time (while yielding way less deaths), are totally incomprehensible for people like me who lives in countries that don’t do it and still handle the situation way better. Europeans need to revolt against those measures which are clearly too harsh for the problem at hand, and which are destroying the local economies.

slimed 6y ago
Absolutely. Americans too.
tasogare 6y ago
French case: « Le ministre de la santé a justifié le recours au confinement expliquant, sur la base des modélisations de l’Institut Pasteur, que « si nous n’avions rien fait, il y aurait eu 9 000 patients atteints du Covid en réanimation à la mi-novembre ». Si le confinement est bien respecté, 6 000 patients seront en réanimation à cette échéance ; « la seconde vague sera alors moins intense que la première », a poursuivi le ministre. » https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/11/05/covid-19-certains-commerces-fermeront-a-22-heures-a-paris-annonce-anne-hidalgo_6058573_3244.html https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/11/05/covid-19-c... So basically 67 millions French are under lockdown to avoid... 3000 additional people being hospitalized. Pure madness.
- crooked-v 6y ago
  3000 people in one month, from a disease that exhibits exponential spread through the population.
  - SamReidHughes 6y ago
    Logistic spread, actually.
  - WildParser 6y ago
    If you look closely the mathematics is all Gompertz-Functions. Big expansion in small groups, burning locally too fast to maintain a continuous exponential fire. This results in seasonal dynamics just like a corona-virus. Usually if you look at death by "date of death" you see Gompertz-Functions all around. If you look at death by "reporting date" you often see a very uneven lag forming some exponentials...
- jobigoud 6y ago
  > 3000 additional people being hospitalized. Not merely hospitalized, but in intensive care units. Do you know how many intensive care units we have? 9000 people in ICU is the saturation point, that's why it's quoted.
NickNameNick 6y ago
I agree that lockdowns are tough, but the economy is going to be trashed anyway if people are sick, disabled, dead or simply feel unsafe. And the lockdown wasn't so bad, and the economy not so badly damaged if you did it properly the first time. - Life's pretty good in New Zealand right now.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  European lockdowns cannot be called "improper" in comparison to New Zealand. NZ is an island served by container shipping that could fully close its borders. European states, on the other hand, are not self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs after centuries of trade and decades of the single market, and the borders had to remain open to at least freight trucks and movement of agricultural workers.
  - NickNameNick 6y ago
    The UK is an island nation too. Closing the borders is not the problem, at least initially. Getting cross-contamination level between households down to effectively zero, and keeping it there long enough for 2 infection cycles is the hard part. NZ did it. Australia managed it eventually. A number of Asian countries have done well too. Possibly off the back of experience dealing with the prior SARS/MERS scares. Some of the African countries have done pretty well, possibly because of experience dealing with Ebola. New Zealand gets plenty of goods via air-freight, along with a continuous stream of returning ex-pats and foreign workers. and ships aren't so slow that the crews (and goods) are automatically safe to interact with when they get here. But it can be managed - we're managing it.
    - JNRowe 6y ago
      > The UK is an island nation too. True, but it also has an open land border. There are a bunch of subtleties to the definition of island nation¹, some of which make UK borders erm… interesting². ¹ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_nation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_nation ² https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_the_United_Kingdom https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_the_United_Kingdo...
viraptor 6y ago
Have you considered an alternative view? "People need to revolt against lack of country's social support which is clearly needed during for the problem at hand". Why is it health vs economy that's always raised rather than economy vs economy? Also, countries which did serious lockdowns are doing relatively well in the end (NZ / Oz)
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  Some oppose lockdowns for reasons which greater state welfare payments cannot help, e.g. the lack of socializing opportunities. Namely, as someone himself pretty advanced in years, I don't think it fair to shut down all the places where teenagers and young people could engage in courtship and all the other rituals of youth, for the sake of protecting mainly the elderly who weren't deprived of those things in their time.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  Are they? They locked down for 5 months in Oz. They have no herd immunity. They had the worst economic quarter on record: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/economy/australia-gdp-recession-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/economy/australia-gdp-recessi...
  - vkou 6y ago
    > They have no herd immunity. Neither does anywhere else. Other places simply stabilized at a higher # of infections/day, because they have worse compliance with social distancing, lockdowns, and basic hygeine. But even bad compliance is better than nothing, and brings R0 down. Stop compliance with all of those things, and you get a second wave that dwarfs the first.
  - wesleywt 6y ago
    The countries that sacrificed their old people like Sweden, Italy and Spain don't have herd immunity either.
    - aivisol 6y ago
mhh__ 6y ago
> while yielding way less deaths For some perspective I feel it is worthwhile to point out that COVID so far has resulted in the deaths of only 19% less Americans than the second world war.

slimed 6y ago

Absolutely. Americans too.

tasogare 6y ago

French case: « Le ministre de la santé a justifié le recours au confinement expliquant, sur la base des modélisations de l’Institut Pasteur, que « si nous n’avions rien fait, il y aurait eu 9 000 patients atteints du Covid en réanimation à la mi-novembre ». Si le confinement est bien respecté, 6 000 patients seront en réanimation à cette échéance ; « la seconde vague sera alors moins intense que la première », a poursuivi le ministre. » https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/11/05/covid-19-certains-commerces-fermeront-a-22-heures-a-paris-annonce-anne-hidalgo_6058573_3244.html https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/11/05/covid-19-c... So basically 67 millions French are under lockdown to avoid... 3000 additional people being hospitalized. Pure madness.

crooked-v 6y ago
3000 people in one month, from a disease that exhibits exponential spread through the population.
- SamReidHughes 6y ago
  Logistic spread, actually.
- WildParser 6y ago
  If you look closely the mathematics is all Gompertz-Functions. Big expansion in small groups, burning locally too fast to maintain a continuous exponential fire. This results in seasonal dynamics just like a corona-virus. Usually if you look at death by "date of death" you see Gompertz-Functions all around. If you look at death by "reporting date" you often see a very uneven lag forming some exponentials...
jobigoud 6y ago
> 3000 additional people being hospitalized. Not merely hospitalized, but in intensive care units. Do you know how many intensive care units we have? 9000 people in ICU is the saturation point, that's why it's quoted.

NickNameNick 6y ago

I agree that lockdowns are tough, but the economy is going to be trashed anyway if people are sick, disabled, dead or simply feel unsafe. And the lockdown wasn't so bad, and the economy not so badly damaged if you did it properly the first time. - Life's pretty good in New Zealand right now.

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
European lockdowns cannot be called "improper" in comparison to New Zealand. NZ is an island served by container shipping that could fully close its borders. European states, on the other hand, are not self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs after centuries of trade and decades of the single market, and the borders had to remain open to at least freight trucks and movement of agricultural workers.
- NickNameNick 6y ago
  The UK is an island nation too. Closing the borders is not the problem, at least initially. Getting cross-contamination level between households down to effectively zero, and keeping it there long enough for 2 infection cycles is the hard part. NZ did it. Australia managed it eventually. A number of Asian countries have done well too. Possibly off the back of experience dealing with the prior SARS/MERS scares. Some of the African countries have done pretty well, possibly because of experience dealing with Ebola. New Zealand gets plenty of goods via air-freight, along with a continuous stream of returning ex-pats and foreign workers. and ships aren't so slow that the crews (and goods) are automatically safe to interact with when they get here. But it can be managed - we're managing it.
  - JNRowe 6y ago
    > The UK is an island nation too. True, but it also has an open land border. There are a bunch of subtleties to the definition of island nation¹, some of which make UK borders erm… interesting². ¹ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_nation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_nation ² https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_the_United_Kingdom https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_the_United_Kingdo...

viraptor 6y ago

Have you considered an alternative view? "People need to revolt against lack of country's social support which is clearly needed during for the problem at hand". Why is it health vs economy that's always raised rather than economy vs economy? Also, countries which did serious lockdowns are doing relatively well in the end (NZ / Oz)

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
Some oppose lockdowns for reasons which greater state welfare payments cannot help, e.g. the lack of socializing opportunities. Namely, as someone himself pretty advanced in years, I don't think it fair to shut down all the places where teenagers and young people could engage in courtship and all the other rituals of youth, for the sake of protecting mainly the elderly who weren't deprived of those things in their time.
chrisco255 6y ago
Are they? They locked down for 5 months in Oz. They have no herd immunity. They had the worst economic quarter on record: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/economy/australia-gdp-recession-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/economy/australia-gdp-recessi...
- vkou 6y ago
  > They have no herd immunity. Neither does anywhere else. Other places simply stabilized at a higher # of infections/day, because they have worse compliance with social distancing, lockdowns, and basic hygeine. But even bad compliance is better than nothing, and brings R0 down. Stop compliance with all of those things, and you get a second wave that dwarfs the first.
- wesleywt 6y ago
  The countries that sacrificed their old people like Sweden, Italy and Spain don't have herd immunity either.
  - aivisol 6y ago

mhh__ 6y ago

> while yielding way less deaths For some perspective I feel it is worthwhile to point out that COVID so far has resulted in the deaths of only 19% less Americans than the second world war.