5 ms·

Bitcoin and Fed Balance Sheet are pretty well correlated.

• iso8859-1 6y ago
  What's the Pearson correlation coefficient?
  • deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
• conanbatt 6y ago
  I think that's what bitcoin maximalists want to believe, but surely not true.
  • johndevor 6y ago
    Bitcoin maximalists have been right about quite a bit the past few years...
    • dylkil 6y ago
      except the most important thing, how to scale bitcoin.
      • sunshinerag 6y ago
        https://lightning.engineering https://lightning.engineering
        • dylkil 6y ago
          vaporware
          • sunshinerag 6y ago
            ? Did you try downloading and using the wallets. It exists. You are misinformed.
  • throwaway-sf 6y ago
    The total market cap of all crypto assets is less than the market cap of Tesla right now. If they are remotely right that bitcoin is a liquid inflation protected asset then the demand for such an asset should increase in a world of more and more QE from central banks.
    • conanbatt 6y ago
      The value of money is not linear compared to its quantity. I remember the calls for high inflation in 2009 with the banks bailout, but it didn't happen.
  • deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  • akvadrako 6y ago
    Don't pretend people know what bitcoin maximalist means.
• throwaway-sf 6y ago
  It's the anticipation of more monetary action...the Fed Balance Sheet peaked in June but yes has been rising slowly lately. Assets have been rallying across the board after Biden looked like he was going to win. The theory is that because it appears the Republicans will still hold on to the Senate, the government will effectively be gridlocked and the Fed will have no choice but to increase asset buying in absence of big fiscal stimulus. You can see that in rates crashing Tuesday/Wednesday after rising in anticipation of a "Blue Wave" that never happened and risk assets increasing across the board.
• microtherion 6y ago
  If by "pretty well" you mean "not at all"... https://ibb.co/z7vgwSd https://ibb.co/z7vgwSd https://ibb.co/Zhqzdxk https://ibb.co/Zhqzdxk
  • rmrfstar 6y ago
    To my eye, it looks like there is a plausible argument that BTC price innovations have a positive loading on Fed balance sheet growth. Can you link raw data? At this point, the marginal buyer is a leveraged investment firm. So, the hypothesis is not a crazy one.
    • microtherion 6y ago
      I'm afraid I don't have the raw data.
      • deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      • rmrfstar 6y ago
        Both are FRED series (CBBTCUSD and WALCL). Rolling one year correlations of one week deltas: 0.3 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+ + + + + + A + + + + + | A AA | 0.2 +-+ AA AAAAAAA+ | AAA AA AAA AA | 0.1 +-+ AAAAA AA AA A A +-+ | AAAAA AAA A AA | | AA A | 0 +-+ A AA AA AAA +-+ | A AA A | | A AA AAA A | -0.1 +A+ AAA AA A A +-+ |AAA A AAAAA AAAA | |A A A | -0.2 A-+ AAAAA A AAA AA +-+ A AA AA AAAAA | -0.3 +-+ AA +-+ | A | + + + + + + + + + + + -0.4 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+ 2017/1/1 2018/11/25 2020/10/11
• paulpauper 6y ago
  so two things that have gone up are corrected. fantastic insight.