> I get what you're saying, and I agree—but then, what is to be done? 538 doesn't do polls themselves, they just aggregate them. If the polls are incorrect, wha

> I get what you're saying, and I agree—but then, what is to be done? 538 doesn't do polls themselves, they just aggregate them. If the polls are incorrect, what do you replace them with? And how do you make that scientific? The most straightforward way to adjust these models, that Gelman mentions himself, is to just assume more uncertainty in the polls and assign wider uncertainty intervals to the models' final projections. It doesn't "fix" the polls but it acknowledges that they aren't as predictive as previously assumed. One of the comments suggests integrating betting market data in some way, which seems to make some intuitive sense based on how well they have performed relative to polls.