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I've read that US polls are much smaller than equivalent UK polls, like sample sizes 90% lower, sometimes just a few hundred people whereas political polls in t

I've read that US polls are much smaller than equivalent UK polls, like sample sizes 90% lower, sometimes just a few hundred people whereas political polls in the UK use more like a thousand or two. It seems like an odd discrepancy. But really. If the polls are so unreliable then at some point people like FiveThirtyEight or the Economist need to understand that and stop incorporating them into models (which may mean not attempting to forecast at all). Just pointing the finger of blame around only gets you so far.

joaomacp 6y ago
I also tend to agree with Peter Thiel's point on The Portal podcast: a significant number of Americans lie on polls because they're ashamed of voting for Donald Trump. My opinion: I think deep down these people feel they are rationally wrong for voting in a president that promised to, and now is actually attacking USA's democracy and freedom which used to be touted as America's strong point. They know they're acting on instinct, and people tend to hide their instincts in public.
- skinkestek 6y ago
  Have my upvote. > My opinion: I think deep down these people feel they are rationally wrong for voting in a president that promised to, and now is actually attacking USA's democracy and freedom which used to be touted as America's strong point. I think you underestimate peoples distrust of mainstream politicians. Many find Trumps suggestions abhorrent, but still support investigations. Think if this happened to "your" candidate: - There's no doubt that Twitter and Facebook has been uncritically spreading false rumors about Trump only to turn right around and supress the H.Biden leaks, even after it was clear at least some of the juicy mails was cryptographically verified. If Twitter had been posting a warning everytime someone pretended the "fine folks on both sides" hoax then they would have been in a better position now. Same if they had come up with the rule against hacked materials when Trumps tax papers supposedly leaked. - Ballot collections - Sweeping changes to election laws etc etc. I dislike Trump, but it is hard to not get some sympathy for someone who has managed to get a number of really fantastic peace deals, have finally started to improve lives of people in the midwest - without hurting the coasts - and yet is hounded by almost every mainstream media outlet.
  - rweir 6y ago
    facebook and twitter have also been uncritically spreading false rumours from trump and only in the past couple of months have done anything to arrest the swirling hive of insanity/bad faith/malicious interference that is qanon.
    - skinkestek 6y ago
      Have my upvote for that too.
  - hiq 6y ago
    > - There's no doubt that Twitter and Facebook has been uncritically spreading false rumors about Trump only to turn right around and supress the H.Biden leaks, even after it was clear at least some of the juicy mails was cryptographically verified. If Twitter had been posting a warning everytime someone pretended the "fine folks on both sides" hoax then they would have been in a better position now. Same if they had come up with the rule against hacked materials when Trumps tax papers supposedly leaked. Do you have a link that refers to this cryptographic verification? Last time I saw this talked about on HN, the summary was that there really wasn't even an ounce of evidence, and that the people who supposedly had it were not sharing it for no good reason, so I'd be interested if there has actually been a proper verification of this. > have finally started to improve lives of people in the midwest - without hurting the coasts What do you mean, and what's the source for this? Again I'm not that informed about this topic, so I'm genuinely curious about a source. That's also the problems when half his tweets make the headlines: that skews the information towards what he says rather than what he does, and given the votes of this election I tend to think that (at least the perception of) the latter is better than the former.
    - Izkata 6y ago
      > Do you have a link that refers to this cryptographic verification? Last time I saw this talked about on HN, the summary was that there really wasn't even an ounce of evidence, and that the people who supposedly had it were not sharing it for no good reason, so I'd be interested if there has actually been a proper verification of this. I don't know what GP is talking about here, but what I remember is at least one person mentioned in the emails confirmed to the FBI that they're real.
- mcphage 6y ago
  > a significant number of Americans lie on polls because they're ashamed of voting for Donald Trump That has been addressed before, and it had seemed unlikely—there are races where more "normal" Republicans on the ballot (for house or senate races) were polling worse than Trump. So it might be that they're ashamed to vote for Trump, but why would they be ashamed—let alone even more ashamed—to vote for a normal Republican?
- jonstewart 6y ago
  Would that Peter Thiel himself felt more shame.

joaomacp 6y ago

I also tend to agree with Peter Thiel's point on The Portal podcast: a significant number of Americans lie on polls because they're ashamed of voting for Donald Trump. My opinion: I think deep down these people feel they are rationally wrong for voting in a president that promised to, and now is actually attacking USA's democracy and freedom which used to be touted as America's strong point. They know they're acting on instinct, and people tend to hide their instincts in public.

skinkestek 6y ago
Have my upvote. > My opinion: I think deep down these people feel they are rationally wrong for voting in a president that promised to, and now is actually attacking USA's democracy and freedom which used to be touted as America's strong point. I think you underestimate peoples distrust of mainstream politicians. Many find Trumps suggestions abhorrent, but still support investigations. Think if this happened to "your" candidate: - There's no doubt that Twitter and Facebook has been uncritically spreading false rumors about Trump only to turn right around and supress the H.Biden leaks, even after it was clear at least some of the juicy mails was cryptographically verified. If Twitter had been posting a warning everytime someone pretended the "fine folks on both sides" hoax then they would have been in a better position now. Same if they had come up with the rule against hacked materials when Trumps tax papers supposedly leaked. - Ballot collections - Sweeping changes to election laws etc etc. I dislike Trump, but it is hard to not get some sympathy for someone who has managed to get a number of really fantastic peace deals, have finally started to improve lives of people in the midwest - without hurting the coasts - and yet is hounded by almost every mainstream media outlet.
- rweir 6y ago
  facebook and twitter have also been uncritically spreading false rumours from trump and only in the past couple of months have done anything to arrest the swirling hive of insanity/bad faith/malicious interference that is qanon.
  - skinkestek 6y ago
    Have my upvote for that too.
- hiq 6y ago
  > - There's no doubt that Twitter and Facebook has been uncritically spreading false rumors about Trump only to turn right around and supress the H.Biden leaks, even after it was clear at least some of the juicy mails was cryptographically verified. If Twitter had been posting a warning everytime someone pretended the "fine folks on both sides" hoax then they would have been in a better position now. Same if they had come up with the rule against hacked materials when Trumps tax papers supposedly leaked. Do you have a link that refers to this cryptographic verification? Last time I saw this talked about on HN, the summary was that there really wasn't even an ounce of evidence, and that the people who supposedly had it were not sharing it for no good reason, so I'd be interested if there has actually been a proper verification of this. > have finally started to improve lives of people in the midwest - without hurting the coasts What do you mean, and what's the source for this? Again I'm not that informed about this topic, so I'm genuinely curious about a source. That's also the problems when half his tweets make the headlines: that skews the information towards what he says rather than what he does, and given the votes of this election I tend to think that (at least the perception of) the latter is better than the former.
  - Izkata 6y ago
    > Do you have a link that refers to this cryptographic verification? Last time I saw this talked about on HN, the summary was that there really wasn't even an ounce of evidence, and that the people who supposedly had it were not sharing it for no good reason, so I'd be interested if there has actually been a proper verification of this. I don't know what GP is talking about here, but what I remember is at least one person mentioned in the emails confirmed to the FBI that they're real.
mcphage 6y ago
> a significant number of Americans lie on polls because they're ashamed of voting for Donald Trump That has been addressed before, and it had seemed unlikely—there are races where more "normal" Republicans on the ballot (for house or senate races) were polling worse than Trump. So it might be that they're ashamed to vote for Trump, but why would they be ashamed—let alone even more ashamed—to vote for a normal Republican?
jonstewart 6y ago
Would that Peter Thiel himself felt more shame.