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Biden Will Win Nevada by 1%
- t-writescode 6y agoThis argument presupposes that the voting patterns of mail in vs non mail in ballots are the same, even in the same district. I believe an argument was made that this will not be the case.
- evgen 6y agoIf anything can be said about the breakdown of mail-in ballots vs in-person voting it is that the former favours Biden. NV is likely to be a bit more balanced, but in no instance so far has a vote total moved towards Trump (dems told people to vote early by mail and a lot of what remains to be counted is from large urban districts that trend Democratic.)
- marcacohen 6y agoAgreed but I've seen arguments both ways. If I had to bet, I think the Biden shift will be stronger than my prediction but I chose to adopt a more conservative assumption.
- marcacohen 6y agoThanks for pointing that out. I agree and noted that caveat in the article.
- znpy 6y agothis really looks like the easy reasoning that will get beaten by facts. if that was so easy, why bother counting the votes at all? /s We'll see, I guess :)
- marcacohen 6y agoNot sure why you say "if that was so easy, why bother counting the votes at all?". My estimate isn't really easy in that it's based on 86% of votes counted statewide, thanks to the hard work done by election officials, poll workers, and volunteers in Nevada.