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I don’t see how wide margins are a fault. To me that’s just being honest about the uncertainty. I also don’t think they hide this uncertainty. The model result

• jonstewart 6y ago
  The problem’s that 538 is selling certainty. That’s where their pixels go, with the implication that they’re big math nerds who can divine the future based on combining lots of polls and other data sources. If it all amounts to “eh, we don’t really know,” then 538 doesn’t have much of a business model.
• SilasX 6y ago
  >I don’t see how wide margins are a fault. To me that’s just being honest about the uncertainty. Something still seems off about that. How do you do that many large polls of that many primaries and have such error still? Sure, there's going to be sampling error, hitting unrepresentative pockets and so on, but ... why can't they get any better after all this time (i.e. there was a previous Trump election) and research on the demographics?