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Not sure how you're counting, but by my calculations Wisconsin: 53.7/45.4 -> 49.6/48.9 (3.8 diff) Michigan: 53.5/45.5 -> 50.5/48 (2.7 diff) PA: 52.0/47.3 ->
by ehsankia 6y ago
Not sure how you're counting, but by my calculations
Wisconsin: 53.7/45.4 -> 49.6/48.9 (3.8 diff)
Michigan: 53.5/45.5 -> 50.5/48 (2.7 diff)
PA: 52.0/47.3 -> 48.1/50.7 (3.7 diff), though will shift quite a lot as you mention
So even then it's still closer to 3-4 point, not 4-8 as you mention.
- divbzero 6y agoI think we all need to be mindful of forming conclusions too soon based on incomplete data. It’s easy to get fixated on our first impressions even as new data comes in.
- silvester23 6y agoI think GP is measuring the difference in the total margin while you are measuring the difference in each candidates percentage. I.e. in Wisconsin, the forecasted margin was 8.3 points and looks to be closer to 0.7 points which is a difference of ~8 points as GP said.