4 ms·
Polling is going to continue to get worse, because our politics is deranging. When you poll you have to weight certain demographic groups. What groups though?
by hacknat 6y ago
Polling is going to continue to get worse, because our politics is deranging. When you poll you have to weight certain demographic groups. What groups though? We’re splintering as a country. There were so many anomalies this election. Biden underperformed the suburban vote in the southeast, but not in the southwest, he under performed with Latinos in Texas and Florida, much more than Hillary did, but he did okay everywhere else. There doesn’t seem to be much rhyme or reason to it. The demographics are no longer stable even within the same party. Trump did better amongst non-whites than he did in 2016, and worse among white women and the elderly than he did in 2016, how many pollsters saw that coming and appropriately weighted it?
The demographic outcomes of this country are getting more and more unpredictable.