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Exit polling trades those problems for other problems. :) And, in this year, when such a huge number of votes weren't cast in-person at the polls, exit polls --
by chipotle_coyote 6y ago
Exit polling trades those problems for other problems. :) And, in this year, when such a huge number of votes weren't cast in-person at the polls, exit polls -- e.g., polling voters after they cast their in-person vote -- were definitionally pretty muddled.
- Karrot_Kream 6y agoRight, but if anything that would overrepresent Republican performance among exit polls, no? Unless there were methodology issues with their random exit sampling or voters did not accurately disclose their votes. I guess all this depends on the disparate sorts of polling data that was available and how it was all weighted. Gelman et al published their model so it's worth digging into.