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> In the end, polling averages will probably "call" the winners of all but 1-3 states correctly, along with the winner of the popular vote, which should wind up
by gpm 6y ago
> In the end, polling averages will probably "call" the winners of all but 1-3 states correctly, along with the winner of the popular vote, which should wind up at Biden +4/+5. That's not great. It's better to look at margins and some of the margins were off.
- Nate Silver
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324149741463228416 https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324149741463228416
- rayiner 6y agoThe problem with ignoring that they missed many states by 5-7 points is that it completely scrambled the view of down-ballot races. Democrats poured $300 million into Senate races the lost by large margins. Not only is it unlikely that Democrats gain the Senate, they lost seats in the House. That’s an insane result when national polls were predicting 7+ for Biden.
- gpm 6y ago> The problem with ignoring that they missed many states by 5-7 points That's literally the opposite of what he's doing in the post you are replying to...
- rayiner 6y agoI’m adding to the point about why margins matter not contradicting Silver. (Though I’m convinced that Silver understands statistics better than politics.)