Could you quantify the extremely wrong part? You can see their forecast map here[1]. Even if we just look at whether the probability of Trump winning a particul

Could you quantify the extremely wrong part? You can see their forecast map here[1]. Even if we just look at whether the probability of Trump winning a particular state was > 50% (and ignore the magnitude), the only state we have some semblance of results for that they got wrong is Florida, plus one of the Maine congressional districts. For over 50 discrete predictions that definitely doesn’t look extremely wrong to me. Given how negative you are about them “over time”, I wouldn’t have expected you to take a detailed look at their model this time around. Out of curiosity, what drove you to take a look this time around so you could claim their errors are “shocking, stunning, and increasing”? [1]: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-ma...