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> If the result is always within the margin of error, how useful does that make the polls? That's what Gelman's post is about. There's something wrong with pol
by Karrot_Kream 6y ago
> If the result is always within the margin of error, how useful does that make the polls?
That's what Gelman's post is about. There's something wrong with polling methodology and statisticians' models, and it's time to see what.
- dragonwriter 6y ago> That's what Gelman's post is about. There's something wrong with polling methodology and statisticians' models, and it's time to see what. The problem is that it's very hard without more data than can be gathered, and it may be a moving target. This same fact (or, rather, highly likely conclusion of substantial, correlated polling error indicating a systemic error) was, remember, widely observed in the wake of 2016 and the common hypothesis (for which fixes were implemented in 2020) was that the problem was pollsters not weighting samples for education.