There's also the matter of the electoral college. Regardless of your opinions on its merits as an electoral system, mathematically it acts to amplify tiny vote

There's also the matter of the electoral college. Regardless of your opinions on its merits as an electoral system, mathematically it acts to amplify tiny vote differences into large electoral vote differences, making it harder to predict EVs. It looks like the FiveThirtyEight popular vote forecast will end up and few points off of the final count, but it will be within the confidence interval.