> ... we can’t be so happy about having issued that 96% win probability. Our model messed up. As it stands now, that sounds pretty good, however we have to wai

> ... we can’t be so happy about having issued that 96% win probability. Our model messed up. As it stands now, that sounds pretty good, however we have to wait for the end of the count of course. And in general, I am a fan of not overly editorializing mathematical output. Nate Silver made on his podcast today the point that the popular vote polls look quite good right now, because mail ballots in very blue states like NY are still be counted. However, I kinda enjoy how the forecasters are beating themselves up right now, even if I think that is probably somewhat premature right now.