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This, I wonder, is the issue. As far as I understand, when polling occurs you subsample a population and then extrapolate it based on the existing demographics
by Crye 6y ago
This, I wonder, is the issue. As far as I understand, when polling occurs you subsample a population and then extrapolate it based on the existing demographics of the polling area.
Infamously in 2016, the polls did not take into consideration or normalize for education level. This resulted in a oversampling for for Hillary supporters. So as we continue to see polarization due to personalized media, it may turn out that typical demographic markers are no longer as effective in normalizing these sample polls.
- alasdair_ 6y agoI think that the whole concept of demographics is part of the issue. The Florida vote seemed to treat “latinos” as a single bloc, yet “latinos fearful of communism due to having lived through it” wasn’t a distinct sub-bloc.
- rayiner 6y agoThe polls were just off about Latinos. Trump gained among Puerto Ricans too, though by less than for Cubans. And border county Texan Hispanics for another demographic.