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Is it? These models do more than predict who is going to win overall, they attempt to predict details of the how. On that count they royally screwed up. To quot

Is it? These models do more than predict who is going to win overall, they attempt to predict details of the how. On that count they royally screwed up. To quote the article - > The forecasts were off. We were forecasting Biden to get 54.4% of the two-party vote and it seems that he only got 52% or so. We forecasted Biden at 356 electoral votes and it seems that he’ll only end up with 280 or so. > – The polls messed up more in some states than others. Florida is the clearest example of where the polls got it wrong. No major poll I saw had Trump anywhere near these numbers. Clearly something went wrong. Example: Poll saying Biden winning Wisconsin by +17: https://www.wbay.com/2020/10/28/biden-leads-trump-by-17-points-in-wisconsin-in-abc-newswashington-post-poll/ https://www.wbay.com/2020/10/28/biden-leads-trump-by-17-poin... Actual result: Biden currently winning by .6%. If the poll is off by 16.4% its a garbage poll and needs serious re-evaluation.

redisman 6y ago
Biden might still pick up GA, AZ, PA and NV. That would put him over 300 EV. I think it is too early to say just because some states broke the other way and it feels like something it might not be. Popular vote margins will also change once the big blue states finish counting which might take a while.
jmcgough 6y ago
There was clearly a polling error, so yes, my statement doesn't really stand for southern states like Florida where the count is complete. What I'd be more interested in is an article with more meat than this one, something that analyzes a single model and talks about what, if anything, went wrong. 538 has already mentioned that they plan on doing a post-mortem. The problem with presidential elections is that they happen infrequently with a large time gap between, and we only have a few decades of useful data to model from. For me, as a non-statistician, it's difficult for me to look at the numbers and know whether this one particular reality was adequately accounted for by the model. 538 gave chances of each candidate winning - they didn't state that they'll have exactly x margins of victory. Nate's stance before the election was that Biden could survive a significant polling error, and that's about where we seem to be now. I'm looking forward to the 538 post-mortem.
ehsankia 6y ago
Yes, it does. By the time the millions of remaining votes are counted, these numbers will definitely shift. The popular vote for example always grows as California tallies their slow mail-in votes. 52% will definitely tighten up to the predicted 54.4%. Might not reach it, bt we won't know how close it'll get until we count the remaining votes.
runarberg 6y ago
Biden still has a chance to win 4 more states. If he does he will end up with 321 electoral votes, which is a lot closer then 280. Sure Florida was way off, but correct me if I’m wrong: If you rely on 95% confidence you can expect one prediction in 20 to go outside of it. There are 51 elections to the electoral collage, so you can expect two ore three states/districts to be outside of it.

redisman 6y ago

Biden might still pick up GA, AZ, PA and NV. That would put him over 300 EV. I think it is too early to say just because some states broke the other way and it feels like something it might not be. Popular vote margins will also change once the big blue states finish counting which might take a while.

jmcgough 6y ago

There was clearly a polling error, so yes, my statement doesn't really stand for southern states like Florida where the count is complete. What I'd be more interested in is an article with more meat than this one, something that analyzes a single model and talks about what, if anything, went wrong. 538 has already mentioned that they plan on doing a post-mortem. The problem with presidential elections is that they happen infrequently with a large time gap between, and we only have a few decades of useful data to model from. For me, as a non-statistician, it's difficult for me to look at the numbers and know whether this one particular reality was adequately accounted for by the model. 538 gave chances of each candidate winning - they didn't state that they'll have exactly x margins of victory. Nate's stance before the election was that Biden could survive a significant polling error, and that's about where we seem to be now. I'm looking forward to the 538 post-mortem.

ehsankia 6y ago

Yes, it does. By the time the millions of remaining votes are counted, these numbers will definitely shift. The popular vote for example always grows as California tallies their slow mail-in votes. 52% will definitely tighten up to the predicted 54.4%. Might not reach it, bt we won't know how close it'll get until we count the remaining votes.

runarberg 6y ago

Biden still has a chance to win 4 more states. If he does he will end up with 321 electoral votes, which is a lot closer then 280. Sure Florida was way off, but correct me if I’m wrong: If you rely on 95% confidence you can expect one prediction in 20 to go outside of it. There are 51 elections to the electoral collage, so you can expect two ore three states/districts to be outside of it.