Take a look at their forecast from a different perspective. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2

Take a look at their forecast from a different perspective. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ If you scroll down to the path to victory, this is how I read it: The cusp of the election lies in whether or not the following states flip - Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada. Sure looks like they hit the nail on the head with regard to WHERE the uncertainty was. Maybe that was obvious, maybe every outlet had that same list. But before the election started, we had 6 states to pay extra attention to, and as of right now only one of those is called for certain (Florida) and one is being debated (Arizona.) For what I looked to the forecast to learn, it delivered.