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What Thucydides Teaches Us about War, Politics, and the Human Condition
- simonblack 6y agoThe US is in a double bind. Not only does the Thucydides Trap loom, but the Wolfowitz Doctrine is shepherding US thought into a trap too. My earlier calculations indicated a US-instigated* conflict with China in the Spring-Summer campaign season of 2020. That time has passed. Unless there is a policy U-turn, I see a conflict breaking out at almost any time forward. * Why 'US-instigated'? China is advancing steadily, with a higher rate of GDP growth than the US. It has no need for conflict. In fact, conflict would 'get in the way' and actually slow down its advance. Arithmetically speaking, China becoming 'Number One' is a certainty. On the other hand, US must specifically act to prevent China's rise, or the US will be relegated to an 'also ran'.