7 ms·

The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy

31 points by ecliptik 6y ago

Grakel 6y ago
Who, besides the lonely and the weird, wants to talk to pollsters? Maybe the very passionate voter who believes the "other" side is deeply, and fundamentally evil. So for me, it comes back to the vilification of the "other" by media and educated elites that there is an insurmountable leftist bias in polling. If half of what Trump is accused of were true, this wouldn't have been close.
- zepto 6y ago
  Totally agree with except for you last line. Trump is accused of a lot of stuff, but so are the democrats, and all of it has some level of credibility. That is why it is close. Ironically I think it nets out to bring a lot more about policies and political beliefs than ‘who is accused of what’, since nobody looks that good. Biden made some stupid unforced errors which I think confirm republican’s fears. Trumpeting gun control at stupid moments is the biggest mistake - one which Clinton also made.
  - Grakel 6y ago
    Absolutely. If the republicans could could get on board with pro choice, or the democrats could get on board with guns, each party would be unstoppable unless the other followed suit. The American people are very passionate about less regulation in both of those areas.
    - zepto 6y ago
      Yes - good example. My sense is that it should be easier for Democrats to get on board with guns than for Republicans to get on board with pro-choice. The reasoning is that gun deaths can be prevented by a lot of mechanisms that are not gun control but are consistent with democratic values, whereas pro-life tends to be more a product of religious or spiritual belief rather than pragmatism. I know plenty of otherwise highly progressive people who changed their view of guns once they learned more about them. I wouldn’t even begin to know how to change the opinion of someone who is Pro-life. I literally can’t make the case.
      - Grakel 6y ago
        Yep, totally agree.
      - CincinnatiMan 6y ago
        Pro-life doesn't need religious or spiritual origins, it can simply be that someone views abortion as the killing of another human and feels very strong about it. It's a very complicated issue and is one that I don't have strong feelings about (for or against in totality) because I think that sometimes, it's worth it to end the life of the little human and sometimes it's not. Also frankly because I'm a man and am less affected by it. I don't think we'll ever have everyone on the same page with this topic.
        zepto 6y ago
        I agree, however when I have discussed this with people the question ends up boiling down to some version of ‘at what point does a fertilized egg become a person’. I.e. the fundamental issue is a question about what constitutes a person. Resolving this always seems to have spiritual connotations and some kind of faith is involved. If you have strong feelings about killing people and those apply to fetuses, it implies you have a strong belief that a fetus is a person.
  - smt88 6y ago
    > Trump is accused of a lot of stuff, but so are the democrats, and all of it has some level of credibility. This is like saying, "This tennis ball is large, but so is the moon, and both of them have some level of largeness." The scale absolutely matters. There is no "both sides" this time. All the GOP fears (Biden is senile, a socialist, or a puppet) are based on lies. Everyone else's fears are based on Trump's actual policies: separating children from parents; ignoring and lying about Covid; attacking climate science; and tearing down democratic norms. > Trumpeting gun control at stupid moments is the biggest mistake - one which Clinton also made Gun control is very popular, even among gun owners[1]. Biden spent very, very little time talking about it. He mostly talked about expanding health-care access, managing Covid, and bringing back jobs. If you look at this talking points in the debates, he barely mentioned guns at all. This fear, again, is false fear-mongering by GOP allies, just as it was when they claimed Obama would take away all the guns[2]. 1. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/16/share-of-americans-who-favor-stricter-gun-laws-has-increased-since-2017/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/16/share-of-am... 2. https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2008/08/nra-obama-most-anti-gun-candidate-ever-will-ban-guns-010821 https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2008/08/nra-obama-m...
    - Grakel 6y ago
      You're presenting a very slanted opinion as neutral fact.
      - smt88 6y ago
        Do you believe all facts are politically neutral? Also, if the opinion is slanted and not factual, please explain exactly which opinions and how they're slanted. I didn't write anything that isn't an opinion of the majority of people who pay attention to US affairs.
        zepto 6y ago
        There is certainly no evidence to support the idea that your view is the opinion of the majority, even if it is common.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
esarbe 6y ago
I don't want to sound like a conspiracy nut but... are we sure the votes are counted the right way? With all the electronic voting devices, what guarantees and checks are in place to assert that a vote cast for Trump is not counted towards Biden (or vise versa)? Does anyone know?
- glial 6y ago
  Asking that question isn’t conspiracy theorizing, it’s just due diligence. Like currency, elections live or die by peoples faith in them. It’s really, really important that everybody believes the outcome.
- zapita 6y ago
  The short answer is: nobody knows. The situation is very bleak for election security right now. It’s become a partisan issue which makes it even worse. A few resources: https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/12/17/how-new-voting-machines-could-hack-our-democracy/ https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/12/17/how-new-voting-mach... https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/03/19/permission-to-cheat-audits-cant-detect-fake-votes-on-new-hybrid-voting-machines/ https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/03/19/permission-to-cheat-audits... https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/01/11/georgia-poised-to-pick-vulnerable-barcode-voting-technology/ https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/01/11/georgia-poised-to-pick-vul... https://demwritepress.com/2018/11/04/democrats-must-be-prepared-to-contest-poll-defying-election-results/ https://demwritepress.com/2018/11/04/democrats-must-be-prepa...
- trumpwillwin 6y ago
  https://old.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/jo0sj4/dozens_of_documented_examples_of_election/ https://old.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/jo0sj4/dozens_o... Rampant fraud.
- justinlink 6y ago
  I'm sure there are mistakes and errors during any election. In the end it probably ends up being a non-factor. While wondering about the election results validity is a valid and good question, if you are suggesting maybe the polls are correct but the voting results are wrong, I find that nearly impossible. There are so many ways a pollster could go wrong. Sample Size, Push Polling, Shy Voters, Poor Question, Poorly Trained Survey Collectors, and on and on. With voting it's basically did we count it right.
InfiniteRand 6y ago
I can't find it now but there was a recent Economist article about how a couple polling firms were giving Donald Trump polling much higher than the average based on assumptions of Trump voters being more likely not to admit to supporting Trump for pollsters, or something along those lines
- thu2111 6y ago
  E.g. Trafalgar, who also got it right last time. There's an interview with the guy who runs it here: https://unherd.com/thepost/robert-cahaly-how-we-got-the-polls-right/ https://unherd.com/thepost/robert-cahaly-how-we-got-the-poll...
- edmundsauto 6y ago
  Except every time this has been investigated, there haven't been findings. The only reason to think this is the case is people's hunches.
igouy 6y ago
"The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win" https://www.nytimes.com/article/trafalgar-group-poll.html https://www.nytimes.com/article/trafalgar-group-poll.html
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- milquetoastaf 6y ago
  And he was wrong.
trumpwillwin 6y ago
It's pretty telling that they "SHUT IT DOWN" last night after Trump won Florida. Now they're conveniently finding hundreds of thousands of ballots in states Trump won, some tranches of which are 100% for Joe Biden. When Trump prevails in court (as he ultimately will), he needs prosecute the Democratic Party establishment and the "journalists" who conspired to steal this election
greggeter 6y ago
No, just a catastrophe for the polling companies
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
TheCoelacanth 6y ago
They don't really back up their claim that the polls were wrong. Which specific results significantly diverged from the range of possibilities that the polls indicated? I don't recall any major surprises in electoral college results. The only state results that differed from 538 predictions were Florida and maybe Georgia, but both of those were rated as toss-ups. Most states seem to be within a few points of the polling average. The national popular vote currently has Biden a few points below the prediction, but I expect he will make up those points when California makes it through the 4 million votes that they still have left to count. I feel like people saw the high probability of a Biden win and expected that would mean it would be called early on Election Day, but people analyzing the polls said that would only happen if Biden overperformed polls. For the most part, things went exactly as predicted. Yes, a lot of polls were off by a few points, but that is to be expected. Yes, the errors were correlated with other and were not independent, but that is also to be expected.

31 points by ecliptik 6y ago

Who, besides the lonely and the weird, wants to talk to pollsters? Maybe the very passionate voter who believes the "other" side is deeply, and fundamentally evil. So for me, it comes back to the vilification of the "other" by media and educated elites that there is an insurmountable leftist bias in polling. If half of what Trump is accused of were true, this wouldn't have been close.

zepto 6y ago
Totally agree with except for you last line. Trump is accused of a lot of stuff, but so are the democrats, and all of it has some level of credibility. That is why it is close. Ironically I think it nets out to bring a lot more about policies and political beliefs than ‘who is accused of what’, since nobody looks that good. Biden made some stupid unforced errors which I think confirm republican’s fears. Trumpeting gun control at stupid moments is the biggest mistake - one which Clinton also made.
- Grakel 6y ago
  Absolutely. If the republicans could could get on board with pro choice, or the democrats could get on board with guns, each party would be unstoppable unless the other followed suit. The American people are very passionate about less regulation in both of those areas.
  - zepto 6y ago
    Yes - good example. My sense is that it should be easier for Democrats to get on board with guns than for Republicans to get on board with pro-choice. The reasoning is that gun deaths can be prevented by a lot of mechanisms that are not gun control but are consistent with democratic values, whereas pro-life tends to be more a product of religious or spiritual belief rather than pragmatism. I know plenty of otherwise highly progressive people who changed their view of guns once they learned more about them. I wouldn’t even begin to know how to change the opinion of someone who is Pro-life. I literally can’t make the case.
    - Grakel 6y ago
      Yep, totally agree.
    - CincinnatiMan 6y ago
      Pro-life doesn't need religious or spiritual origins, it can simply be that someone views abortion as the killing of another human and feels very strong about it. It's a very complicated issue and is one that I don't have strong feelings about (for or against in totality) because I think that sometimes, it's worth it to end the life of the little human and sometimes it's not. Also frankly because I'm a man and am less affected by it. I don't think we'll ever have everyone on the same page with this topic.
      - zepto 6y ago
        I agree, however when I have discussed this with people the question ends up boiling down to some version of ‘at what point does a fertilized egg become a person’. I.e. the fundamental issue is a question about what constitutes a person. Resolving this always seems to have spiritual connotations and some kind of faith is involved. If you have strong feelings about killing people and those apply to fetuses, it implies you have a strong belief that a fetus is a person.
- smt88 6y ago
  > Trump is accused of a lot of stuff, but so are the democrats, and all of it has some level of credibility. This is like saying, "This tennis ball is large, but so is the moon, and both of them have some level of largeness." The scale absolutely matters. There is no "both sides" this time. All the GOP fears (Biden is senile, a socialist, or a puppet) are based on lies. Everyone else's fears are based on Trump's actual policies: separating children from parents; ignoring and lying about Covid; attacking climate science; and tearing down democratic norms. > Trumpeting gun control at stupid moments is the biggest mistake - one which Clinton also made Gun control is very popular, even among gun owners[1]. Biden spent very, very little time talking about it. He mostly talked about expanding health-care access, managing Covid, and bringing back jobs. If you look at this talking points in the debates, he barely mentioned guns at all. This fear, again, is false fear-mongering by GOP allies, just as it was when they claimed Obama would take away all the guns[2]. 1. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/16/share-of-americans-who-favor-stricter-gun-laws-has-increased-since-2017/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/16/share-of-am... 2. https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2008/08/nra-obama-most-anti-gun-candidate-ever-will-ban-guns-010821 https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2008/08/nra-obama-m...
  - Grakel 6y ago
    You're presenting a very slanted opinion as neutral fact.
    - smt88 6y ago
      Do you believe all facts are politically neutral? Also, if the opinion is slanted and not factual, please explain exactly which opinions and how they're slanted. I didn't write anything that isn't an opinion of the majority of people who pay attention to US affairs.
      - zepto 6y ago
        There is certainly no evidence to support the idea that your view is the opinion of the majority, even if it is common.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

esarbe 6y ago

I don't want to sound like a conspiracy nut but... are we sure the votes are counted the right way? With all the electronic voting devices, what guarantees and checks are in place to assert that a vote cast for Trump is not counted towards Biden (or vise versa)? Does anyone know?

glial 6y ago
Asking that question isn’t conspiracy theorizing, it’s just due diligence. Like currency, elections live or die by peoples faith in them. It’s really, really important that everybody believes the outcome.
zapita 6y ago
The short answer is: nobody knows. The situation is very bleak for election security right now. It’s become a partisan issue which makes it even worse. A few resources: https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/12/17/how-new-voting-machines-could-hack-our-democracy/ https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/12/17/how-new-voting-mach... https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/03/19/permission-to-cheat-audits-cant-detect-fake-votes-on-new-hybrid-voting-machines/ https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/03/19/permission-to-cheat-audits... https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/01/11/georgia-poised-to-pick-vulnerable-barcode-voting-technology/ https://whowhatwhy.org/2019/01/11/georgia-poised-to-pick-vul... https://demwritepress.com/2018/11/04/democrats-must-be-prepared-to-contest-poll-defying-election-results/ https://demwritepress.com/2018/11/04/democrats-must-be-prepa...
trumpwillwin 6y ago
https://old.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/jo0sj4/dozens_of_documented_examples_of_election/ https://old.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/jo0sj4/dozens_o... Rampant fraud.
justinlink 6y ago
I'm sure there are mistakes and errors during any election. In the end it probably ends up being a non-factor. While wondering about the election results validity is a valid and good question, if you are suggesting maybe the polls are correct but the voting results are wrong, I find that nearly impossible. There are so many ways a pollster could go wrong. Sample Size, Push Polling, Shy Voters, Poor Question, Poorly Trained Survey Collectors, and on and on. With voting it's basically did we count it right.

InfiniteRand 6y ago

I can't find it now but there was a recent Economist article about how a couple polling firms were giving Donald Trump polling much higher than the average based on assumptions of Trump voters being more likely not to admit to supporting Trump for pollsters, or something along those lines

thu2111 6y ago
E.g. Trafalgar, who also got it right last time. There's an interview with the guy who runs it here: https://unherd.com/thepost/robert-cahaly-how-we-got-the-polls-right/ https://unherd.com/thepost/robert-cahaly-how-we-got-the-poll...
edmundsauto 6y ago
Except every time this has been investigated, there haven't been findings. The only reason to think this is the case is people's hunches.

igouy 6y ago

"The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win" https://www.nytimes.com/article/trafalgar-group-poll.html https://www.nytimes.com/article/trafalgar-group-poll.html

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
milquetoastaf 6y ago
And he was wrong.

trumpwillwin 6y ago

It's pretty telling that they "SHUT IT DOWN" last night after Trump won Florida. Now they're conveniently finding hundreds of thousands of ballots in states Trump won, some tranches of which are 100% for Joe Biden. When Trump prevails in court (as he ultimately will), he needs prosecute the Democratic Party establishment and the "journalists" who conspired to steal this election

greggeter 6y ago

No, just a catastrophe for the polling companies

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

TheCoelacanth 6y ago

They don't really back up their claim that the polls were wrong. Which specific results significantly diverged from the range of possibilities that the polls indicated? I don't recall any major surprises in electoral college results. The only state results that differed from 538 predictions were Florida and maybe Georgia, but both of those were rated as toss-ups. Most states seem to be within a few points of the polling average. The national popular vote currently has Biden a few points below the prediction, but I expect he will make up those points when California makes it through the 4 million votes that they still have left to count. I feel like people saw the high probability of a Biden win and expected that would mean it would be called early on Election Day, but people analyzing the polls said that would only happen if Biden overperformed polls. For the most part, things went exactly as predicted. Yes, a lot of polls were off by a few points, but that is to be expected. Yes, the errors were correlated with other and were not independent, but that is also to be expected.