His model is based off of point data. Ultimately what his model encodes is the polls+a degree of uncertainty of the polls are completely wrong. If you looked at

His model is based off of point data. Ultimately what his model encodes is the polls+a degree of uncertainty of the polls are completely wrong. If you looked at just the polls, there was no way for trump to win, even assuming a polling error of the same variety as 2016, which appears to be about the situation we are in now. So no, there's nothing wrong with his tweet. Otherwise, you should be able to explain how trump could win without a polling error. Which states that trump was polling behind by 5-7 points he'd win, and how he's win them without a polling error.